FE Editorial : Emerging truths

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The Financial Express:  Nov 16 2012, 02:47 IST
Although allocations to emerging markets (EMs) have gone up for the second straight month, fund managers have lowered allocations for India to what is now an 11-month low. In contrast, Korea’s allocations are at a 21-month high, while China, where both growth and macroeconomic data over the past month has been encouraging, too has won over asset allocators who are now overweight on the world’s second largest economy. To some extent, this is not surprising because India has already been an outperformer for the better part of 2012—so far this year the Sensex has gained 15.56% in dollar terms, making it that much more difficult to get higher returns. The Kospi, in contrast, has returned just 8.82% and Taiex has put on only 5.16%.

The Shanghai Composite, on the other hand, has lost 6.67%. Indeed, with fund managers in risk-on mode and showing an appetite for EM equities, fund flows into India have crossed $18.5 billion, with the Korean markets attracting a shade under $12 billion. At levels of 18,471, the Sensex now trades at around 14.5 times one-year forward earnings—slightly below the long-term average of 15 times—and is more than fairly valued. Unless western economies see very large amounts of liquidity in the near future, it’s unlikely the Indian markets will head up further.

For one, the macroeconomic environment isn’t encouraging and, with the reforms process all but stalled, corporates aren’t willing to invest, so the capex cycle isn’t about to turn in a hurry. Corporate earnings in the September 2012

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