Given the last time the fiscal deficit in the first six months of the year was around 76% of the full year’s target was in FY09, and that year’s deficit ballooned from the projected 2.5% of GDP to 6%, the portents for finance minister P Chidambaram being able to stick to his 4.8% target don’t look good. Of course, while FY09’s deficit was elevated because of the large pay commission arrears, the big difference this time is the sharp collapse in revenues and the bringing forward of expenditure. While overall tax collections are a mere 37.1% of the budgeted tax as compared to 41% in the same period last year, the story gets worse as you drill down to specific taxes. In the case of corporate taxes, as compared to the budgeted growth target of 16.9%, April-September collections are up just 7.5%, personal taxes are broadly on target, customs collections are up a mere 5.6% versus the targeted 13.6% and service taxes are up just 16.3% versus the 35.7% target. The shocker: against a 14.9% excise duty target, collections are down 8.2%—while 38.3% of the year’s target was collected by this time last year, this year’s figure is a mere 31.3%. None of this is unexpected given the collapse in industry, corporate profits and overall GDP. The problem is, the future isn’t going to be that bright either; even RBI has lowered its growth forecast to 5% as compared to the 6% assumed in the Budget.
Non-tax receipts have fared even worse. Against a R54,000 crore disinvestment target, the first six months have yielded just R1,479 crore. The government is also targeting a huge jump in dividend and profits including from RBI, from R72,037 crore in FY13 to R91,631 crore in FY14. Given this will also slip, the FM’s choices are limited. A sharper cut in expenditure is one way out—it has already begun with September’s fiscal deficit up just R8,000 crore as compared to R70,000 crore each in the past few months—but that lowers potential GDP even more. In which case, the FM has no option but to pull out