Down with the dollar

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: On March 5th an index of the value of the American dollar against six other big currencies touched 89.11, its highest point this year. Since then, however, it has been a steady downward drift for the greenback. On Tuesday October 20th, for example, the dollar index had slipped to 75.24, its lowest point in more than a year.

This hardly constitutes an outright collapse, nor is it necessarily cause for concern. American exporters, whose goods have become more competitive abroad, are happy with their weaker currency. Similarly domestic producers may be cheered that rival, imported goods are more expensive. And European tourists, who can buy more for their euros during weekend shopping excursions to America, may cheer too. However, the continued decline of the dollar does come against a backdrop of ominous murmurs from the likes of China and Russia, who hold much of their reserves in dollars, about the need to shift their reserves out of the greenback. Brazil’s imposition of a 2% levy on portfolio inflows is also a sign that other countries are getting nervous about seeing their currencies rise against the dollar.

Worries about the dollar are hardly new. Well before the credit crunch some fretted that a collapse in the currency and a jump in Treasury-bond yields, as foreigners balked at funding America’s current-account deficit, would precipitate an economic crisis. Instead sub-prime mortgages and over-leveraged financial institutions plunged the world into its worst recession since the Great Depresssion.

The recession, which reduced America’s imports as consumers tightened their belts, has improved its trade imbalance, shrinking its current-account deficit. But ironically this has been accompanied by renewed weakness for the dollar.

The simplest explanation for the currency’s decline is based on risk aversion. On the days when risky assets fall, the dollar tends to go up. When risky assets rise, the dollar falls. The dollar has fallen fairly steadily since March, a period which has seen stockmarkets enjoy a phenomenal rally. Domestic American investors may be driving the relationship, repatriating funds in 2008 when they were nervous about the state of financial markets and sending the money abroad again this summer because of a perception that the global economy is reviving.