Despite early chill, 2014 to be hot year for equities: Deutsche

Jan 09 2014, 20:28 IST
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 The year 2014 heralds the beginning of a bull cycle in India and the BSE Sensex may scale the 24,000 peak by Dec, Deutsche Equities said. Reuters The year 2014 heralds the beginning of a bull cycle in India and the BSE Sensex may scale the 24,000 peak by Dec, Deutsche Equities said. Reuters
SummaryThe BSE Sensex has shed over 450 points in 2014 so far, making it the second worst New Year show.

are not ruling out rupee volatility in 2014, but we strongly believe the currency movement will not be as disorderly as it was last year," Laijawala said.

"FIIs will be looking at stable rupee and we expect the rupee to trade at 60-62 (against dollar) in FY15," said Pratik Gupta, Head-Equities at the brokerage.

The Reserve Bank's proactive approach should lend stability to rupee, which plunged to all-time lows against the US currency in 2013, he said.

On tapering, Gupta said if US rolls back its monthly bond buying programme in an orderly manner, we will see an increasing degree of investor discrimination within emerging markets, driven by divergence in the performance of respective currencies and reform efforts.

"We believe RBI and Finance Ministry's proactive and unorthodox measures on quelling currency volatility in 2013 raised India's credibility in managing turbulences associated with normalisation of monetary policies.

"For foreign institutional investors, currency stability remains a core determinant of faith and the RBI has now emerged as a key enabler of investor confidence," said Laijawala.

"After the taper announcement on December 18 last, the Indian equities have witnessed highest FII inflows amongst its Asian EM peers ex-China. This indicates rising investor confidence in India and its ability to manage external vulnerabilities."

Year 2014 will also see the end of record selling by domestic institutional investors (DIIs). This, too, is likely to have impact on markets. Laijawala said.

In 2013 DIIs sold a record USD 13 billion in equities. This was offset by a USD 20 billion of FII buying, the second best after 2010's USD 29 billion, he said.

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