expire this year. This is followed by Purdue Pharma’s OxyContin, which sold $2.4 billion last year, and ends with Novartis osteoporosis treatment Reclast, which generated $612 million.
Pharmaceutical researcher Evaluate Pharma had projected around $290 billion of sales at risk from patent expirations between 2013 and 2018. “More than 70% of that total is being lost to generic drugmakers because of the continuation of patent cliff,” said a pharmaceutical analyst of a US-based brokerage house.
Analysts said even in a tough economic environment, some of the frontline Indian pharma companies have the capability to generate 16-20% topline as well as bottomline growth. For FMCG companies, several companies have continued to expand their rural distribution reach and convert indirect sales into direct sales, they said.
Data show Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries has given returns of 49% this year, while Lupin has given a 40% boost to investors' portfolio. Moreover, Sun Pharma has given returns of 130% in the last two years. Even FMCG firms like Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) and Dabur India Ltd have given returns in the range of 10-30% so far this year.
Analysts believe the trend could change once the government begins to dole out more reforms to boost economic growth — a move that would prompt investors to move back to cyclical and high-beta stocks like banking, real estate and infrastructure, among others. As a result, many brokerages and institutions have gradually started to go ‘neutral’ from ‘outperform’.