Crisis? What crisis?

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: backlog by 27%, which would still not affect production for several years.

One reason the planemakers are bullish is that neither is dependent on the hard-hit American market. “We’re fortunate because, unlike in other cycles, only 10% of our backlog is in America,” says Boeing’s chief executive, Jim McNerney. Another reason is that demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft has never been greater. The latest versions of the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, the single-aisle workhorses for which demand is strongest, are up to 40% cheaper to run than the vintage planes some American airlines still use.

But the airlines want more from Boeing and Airbus. Although the current version of the 737 is only ten years old, it was designed to catch up with the now 20-year-old A320. And despite the industry’s boasts about technical progress, a new A320 delivered next year will be only marginally more efficient than one delivered in 1988. That is worrying for early A320 customers, such as Air France-KLM, which would normally expect to see a double-digit gain in operating-costs when it replaces a 20-year-old plane. Even the Americans, who are desperate to get rid of their old gas-guzzlers, are worried that they will be buying old technology.

Unfortunately for the airlines, Airbus and Boeing have recently confirmed that the date for producing successors to their single-aisle planes is receding. A year ago, the new aircraft looked as if they might enter service in 2015. Now, both are saying that 2018 is more likely, at the earliest—and their reasons for delay are almost identical.

First, there are those fat order books. As of July 1st, Airbus had an order backlog of 2,634 A320-class planes, and Boeing’s backlog of 737s was 2,243. Why replace an aircraft that you cannot make fast enough? Second, both Boeing and Airbus are having their financial and engineering resources stretched by other projects, which are also important to the airlines. For Airbus, the priority is to ensure that its larger A350 is delivered on time in 2013. Boeing has little spare capacity for anything other than getting the badly delayed 787 flying and into the hands of impatient customers as quickly as possible. Even when it manages that, it may decide to concentrate on updating the 777, which will be threatened by the 350-seat A350-1000, due in 2015.