Credit Suisse: Investment cycle revival at least 3-4 yrs away
"Even the oft-discussed fiscal consolidation is unlikely to come about until the economy reaccelerates as historically the government's walk usually differs from the talk," it said.
Credit Suisse said all but three of the 112 pending Bills have either low probability or low economic impact, and the secular decline in Parliamentary and legislative activity compounds the issue.
Assessing each of the proposed reforms on three parameters such as the likelihood, the economic impact, and time for the impact to be felt, the report says, "Our analysis suggests all but three of 112 Bills--the FCRA Amendment, GST and National Investment Board (NIB)-- currently pending in Parliament have either low probability or low economic impact."
On the NIB, which is perceived to be one of the most ambitious administrative reform initiatives proposed by the government, it said will empower the Cabinet as it will have the mandate to expedite large infrastructure projects.
It also said that a whopping Rs 10 trillion worth projects are stuck pending clearances, most in the power, petroleum and steel sectors, constituting 70 per cent of all delayed big-ticket projects.
Stating that the earlier Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure formed in July 2009 or the various empowered groups of ministers did not have the desired impact, it said "the very fact that an NIB is now being proposed suggests these have only been partly successful. It is thus important to know how the NIB is different."
It further says,
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