Cranes Software exceeds expectations on election projections

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Bangalore: Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Executive VP at Cranes and his team has been associated with CNN-IBN for all election forecasts over the past three years.

Presenting live on CNN-IBN, on May 16th, Rajdeep Sardesai, Editor-in-Chief, IBN Network said: “Someone who must claim victory today is our resident psephologist or really a statistician, Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, EVP of Cranes Software, (who) kept saying the UPA would be on the higher side, final figures on CNN-IBN were 210 to 225, they are likely to end up in that range, maybe a little above that Rajeev… and I was the one who was being conservative telling you keep it lower let us not go over the board.”

Speaking live post declaration of counting results on the same day, Sagarika Ghosh, Sr. editor, IBN Network said: “Rajeeva Karandikar (EVP Cranes Software), Yogendra Yadav (CSDS) they really are the men of the match and they have got the projections spot on honestly…”

Cranes Software has been a strategic partner to CNN IBN in analyzing exit and opinion poll data for the recently held Lok Sabha elections. The exercise is an example of the Company’s strong capabilities in the field of predictive analysis. It has also leveraged its deep domain expertise in statistics and graphics, and used the analytically intelligent tools - SYSTAT and SigmaPlot, in providing back end data analysis for the on screen graphics. Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, a well regarded probabilist and statistician and Executive VP at Cranes and his team has been associated with the news channel for all election forecasts over the past three years.

Talking about how he went about getting it right, Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, explained: “The opinion polls that predict the composition of Lok Sabha or Vidhan Sabha have attracted a lot of attention over the past 20 years. While these polls provide fodder for debate across media channels; one cannot ignore questions such as ‘how can surveying a small fraction of people give insight into how the country is going to vote?’

We could try discussing the situation and process through a set of examples.