Column : Why delivery may skip Copenhagen

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: Global warming—three current realities; one subjective surmise and a concluding call for public opinion to drive the case for urgent and collaborative action to prevent, mitigate and adapt to the consequences.

Reality 1: The earth is warming at a rate that human and natural habitats cannot adapt to. The earth has historically been characterised by climate change but at a pace that shifting patterns of the eco system have been able to accommodate. Today human action threatens to disrupt this balance. The concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere has moved the temperature trajectory onto a higher and dangerously upward level. The consequential warming will do irremediable damage to the planet.

Reality 2: Read any document on the subject whether authored by governments, NGOs or scientists and one cannot help but be struck by the commonality of the recommendations proposed for tackling global warming. There are of course differences over details, timings and statistics. And there is no consensus yet on issues like the mechanics of carbon trading, taxes and prices; the optimal mix between risk and reward and efficiency and equity; the role of legislative fiat and of course the paymaster— who should pick up the tab —the industrialised world that is responsible for the crisis, the multilateral agencies like the World Bank’s climate change investment funds and/or the market via avenues like the clean development mechanism. But there is little or no difference in the recommended future pathway. Almost everyone agrees that the most effective way of containing GHG emissions is to invest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and forestation. The reality is that we know what needs to be done; the roadmap is clear and the technologies are familiar and accessible.

Reality 3: “Politics as usual” continues to define the dialogue on climate change. This is no surprise given the shackles of national politics. Thus even though Obama has “successfully” pushed a climate change bill through Congress, his hands are tied. He cannot ignore the fact that 212 members voted against the bill not because they had problems over specific clauses but because they still challenged the scientific evidence. One representative Paul Brown of Georgia even asserted that climate change was a “hoax” perpetrated on the world by the scientific community. His remarks drew broad applause.