Column Speculation or fundamentals?

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: (the UN has estimated that global population will increase from 6 bn today to 9 bn by 2050) and increasing prosperity.

Second, the supply of energy from existing resources will struggle to keep pace with demand. The production of oil and gas from existing fields will taper off and it will not be easy to offset this depletion through new discoveries. Coal will grow but its potential will be limited by infrastructural inadequacy (ports, storage) and transport bottlenecks—not to speak of environmental concerns. Bio and nuclear will increase their share in the energy basket but their contribution may not be meaningful. Third, the environment will face increasing stress. We may moderate the use of fossil fuel but we cannot replace it totally. The consequential emission of greenhouse gases will deepen concerns about climate change.

These are the three long-term fundamentals. Together they will drive the emergent energy system. The question for decision makers is how they should adapt to these underlying trends. They could respond by taking the easy option of focusing only on supply or adopt a more balanced approach by combining the development of new sources of energy with meaningful demand management and energy efficiency. The former would delay actions on carbon management and might well push countries onto a pathway that leads to CO2 concentrations above the sustainable levels of 550 ppmv. The latter could trigger decisive actions on issues like carbon trading and carbon pricing. And thereby encourage investment in carbon capture and sequestration and alternative energies. The result would be an early plateauing of carbon emissions.

What will be the path that India will follow? I do not know, but it would be better if it followed the latter path. The issue is whether it is currently positioned to shift itself towards that direction. Does it have the appropriate decision making structure to acknowledge and respond to emergent supply-demand-environmental tensions? Is our polity prepared to encourage competition and a well functioning market mechanism? Answers to these questions will determine our capability to do so or not.