Column : Meeting the 5.3% deficit target

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Rohini Malkani:  Feb 14 2013, 00:07 IST
Latest trends in government finances on both the revenue and the expenditure front are encouraging with revenues in line with estimates and expenditures below budgeted rates, thereby resulting in a marginal fiscal surplus in December. While, admittedly, there is some seasonality in the December tax numbers, the key factor responsible for the improvement in government finances is a larger-than-expected compression in expenditure. A continuation of trends since September now makes the government’s 5.3% deficit target seem more achievable. This is in contrast to trends a few months ago when expectations were of a deficit close to 5.9% levels. Key to watch in the next few weeks are (1) divestments—the new norms and pricing are making a difference, (2) telecom re-auction, (3) further expenditure compression, and (4) extent of subsidy deferral.

Upon a closer look at the numbers, one finds that government expenditure remained in check for the fourth consecutive month with spending in December down by 9% yoy. Cumulatively, during April-December, total expenditure was R9,911 billion, up 10.6% yoy and 67% of budget estimates. While the run-rate on expenses is below the budgeted rate of 13.1%, key points to note are: (1) the subsidy estimates in the budget have little provision for fuel subsidy for FY13, and (2) expenditure compression is largely due to plan expenditure, which is up 6.9% versus a targeted rate of 22.1%.

On the expenditure front, as non-Plan expenditure is largely ‘committed’ expenditure—i.e. spending on interest, wages, subsidies and defence, there is little room for manoeuvrability. Additionally, the

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