Column: Don’t expect the euro’s rally to last

Nov 02 2013, 00:33 IST
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SummaryThe euro’s long-term trend against the dollar is still almost certainly downwards, despite the recent gains

What is happening to the euro? Currencies are more important than stock market prices or bond yields for many businesses and investors, not to mention for globe-trotting families and humble tourists. Which makes it surprising that so little attention has recently been devoted to the strengthening of the euro, which hit its highest level since 2011 this Monday, having jumped by 5.5% since September and over 8% since early July. This remarkable ascent, which has also driven the euro to its highest level against the yen since the 2008-09 financial crisis, means that European exporters are losing competitiveness, Americans and Asians who live or travel in Europe are feeling like poor relations and many economists are starting to worry that Europe’s nascent economic recovery will be snuffed out.

Purely financial players, by contrast, seem to be more enthusiastic about the euro’s strength than they have been for years. Speculative futures bets in favour of further euro appreciation have reached their highest level since the summer of 2011—and the only time they were higher than that in the past decade was in the period just before the Lehman shock. Significantly, both of these speculative crescendos were followed by sharp euro declines, since currency markets generally turn when bullish sentiment reaches extreme levels. But there is a deeper reason to expect the euro’s seemingly irresistible rise to reverse.

Currencies tend to move in trends for many years, and the fact is that the euro’s long-term trend against the dollar is still almost certainly downwards, despite the big gains of the past few months.

The euro’s long-run trend against the dollar turned down decisively more than five years ago. Since the euro hit an all-time peak of $1.60 in April 2008 it has moved in several cycles, making lower highs and lower lows. The previous peak before this week’s was in April 2011 at $1.48 and the one before that was in November 2009 at $1.52. The subsequent lows, in June 2010 and July 2012, were both around $1.20. It seems reasonable to expect this level to be tested again in the next year or so.

The direction of the dollar’s long-term trend against the euro (and before that the deutsche mark) has always been determined mostly by events in America, rather than Europe. The dollar rose strongly from 1980 to 1985, driven by the surging confidence in U.S. geopolitical power and economic revival under Ronald Reagan.

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