Coal demand to soar in short term, but longer outlook is dim

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook that although coal would remain the world’s leading fuel for power generation in the next two decades, its share would drop, mainly losing out to rising demand for natural gas and renewables.

While coal’s share of global primary energy demand falls by nearly three percentage points to less than 25% in 2035, coal remains the second most important fuel behind oil and the backbone of electricity generation, the report said.

Global coal demand grows by 0.8% per year to 2035, with growth slowing sharply after 2020 as recently introduced and planned policies to curb use take effect. The IEA said that China’s coal demand would peak around 2020, by when it would make up half of global coal demand, and would plateau at that level until 2035.

By 2025, India overtakes the US to become the second largest coal user. By contrast, almost all major OECD regions see their coal use decline, especially Europe, where demand in 2035 is 60% of the 2010 level, the report said.

The IEA said that most major coal producers, including China and the US, see their production slow or even decline. OECD coal output starts to fall around 2020 and is 10 percent lower in 2035 than

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