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Technical Analysis

Characterised by dynamism

Mayur Shah

Posted: 2008-11-16 22:29:24+05:30 IST
Updated: Nov 16, 2008 at 2229 hrs IST

: The improvement during the Diwali week was short-lived as the indices did not go into an intermediate uptrend even as a few stocks went into a fresh intermediate uptrend. This means that the intermediate downtrend, which has started on August 12 is still intact as the indices are poised to test their recent minor bottoms if the intermediate rally does not start soon. The target for the Sensex to move into an intermediate uptrend is at 10,571 and for the Nifty it is at 3,161.25. The equivalent level for the CNX Mid Cap index to get back into an intermediate uptrend is at 3,868. The earlier intermediate top for the Sensex and the Nifty is far away and is at 15,580 and 4,650. As these levels are quite far away, the next intermediate uptrend will be a rally within a major downtrend and only traders must participate in the rally. Investors must stay sideways for some more time. The equivalent level for the CNX Mid Cap index to get back into a major uptrend.

In the last week, all the indices ended in red after two weeks gains seen after Diwali. The Sensex lost 5.81% and the Nifty ended 5.47% lower. Among the sectors, the BSE Realty sector was the largest loser, ending 14.14% lower and was followed by the BSE Capital Goods sector, which lost 8.96%. Among the sectors, which registered a lower loss, were the BSE Health Care index, which lost 1.08% and was followed by the BSE FMCG sector, which ended 3.15% lower.

The Sensex has support at 9,620, which is the 50% retracement level of the minor rise during Diwali and 8,940, which is the 61.8% retracement level. The equivalent support levels for the Nifty are at 2,750 and 2,640. A drop below 8,940 by the Sensex and 2,640 by the Nifty could result in the indices testing their recent minor bottoms attained on the October 27. In the coming week we will watch if these levels can hold and an intermediate uptrend can start. On the upper side, the Sensex has a resistance between 10,571 and 10,946 and only after the Sensex is able to close past this resistance zone, it will head higher to the 12,500 level. The Nifty has a resistance zone between 3,161.25 and 3,241. Once this resistance zone is crossed, the Nifty will move to the next resistance zone of 3,790. Our markets...

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