When bulk diesel prices were deregulated in January, the government had hoped it would enable oil marketing companies (OMCs) to reduce annual under-recoveries by a substantial R15,000 crore (assuming crude prices and the rupee at 2012-13 levels), but that was not to be. The share of bulk diesel in total diesel sales has declined sharply since deregulation, as price-sensitive consumers, especially cash-strapped state road transport corporations, tap retail outlets to cut fuel costs.
Bulk diesel sales, which stood at about 12 million tonnes (mt) or 17% of the total annual consumption of around 70 mt in January, have fallen to about 7 mt (10%) in March, thwarting potential savings of up to R2,200 crore for OMCs since January.
Even as OMCs benefit from declining international crude oil prices, analysts expect purchases of bulk diesel to fall further, eroding potential savings from market pricing. “The share of bulk diesel buyers is likely to fall further, but there will be consumers who won’t be able to shift to retail diesel; so we expect it to stabilise at a level lower than the current one,” said an analyst at an international brokerage tracking the oil & gas sector.
Under-recoveries on diesel which stood at R92,000 crore or 58% of that on all fuels in 2012-13 has slipped to R3.80/litre in the second half of April from R6.42 in the previous month due to the softening of the crude and some strengthening of the rupee. The price difference between bulk diesel and retail diesel was about R9/litre or close to 20% in January, which fell to just R6 or 12% in March and further to R4 now, yet even that was enough to keep bulk users shifting to retail purchases.
As FE had reported earlier, road transport corporations in Tamil Nadu and Kerala had obtained interim court orders restraining OMCs from charging them market rates for bulk diesel. Ironically, Kerala’s Congress-led UDF government had moved the court against the deregulation despite the decision being that of the UPA government, anchored by the same party.
Bulk users in construction, cement, mining and steel sectors are also following a similar