Build-up to Budget: PM Narendra Modi govt's reforms to target bank funding

Jul 05 2014, 12:27 IST
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Banks keep annual resets on project and corporate loans so that they can align their short-term funding costs with long-term liabilities. (Photo: PTI) Banks keep annual resets on project and corporate loans so that they can align their short-term funding costs with long-term liabilities. (Photo: PTI)
SummaryIndia's first Budget under PM Narendra Modi's reform-minded govt likely...

of India allowed banks to issue long-term bonds but attached a lot of conditions.

The RBI banned call and put options on these long-term bonds, and restricted the total amount of bond sales to no more than a bank's exposure to infrastructure loans with more than five years' residual maturity. Hardly any bank attempted such an issue.

The lack of senior bonds has also distorted risk pricing.

"As Indian banks do not issue senior bonds onshore, their subordinated bonds get priced like senior bonds," said Atul Joshi, CEO of India Ratings and Research, the local arm of Fitch.

"In 2004 when the RBI allowed long-term bonds of a minimum five years to be issued, the pricing of those bonds also automatically got linked to the bank's subordinated bonds, plus investors started asking for a premium for the infrastructure risk."

PRICING SKEWED

Indian investors see little difference between senior and subordinated bonds, an approach that has been reflected in the rating of these instruments. But Basel-III rules, which require subordinated bonds to carry loss-absorbing features, are challenging that approach, and analysts believe a pricing differential between senior and subordinated bonds will eventually open up.

Senior bonds should come at least 5bp-10bp tighter than the subordinated Basel II-compliant outstanding bonds from the same bank, Joshi said.

Other market participants said the spread between the senior and subordinated bank bonds might even go up to 50bp-100bp if a proper yield curve is established - as is the case in other, more developed markets elsewhere.

Privately owned lender ICICI Bank has made a few attempts to issue senior bonds onshore. In March 2013, the lender issued Rs11bn of 5.3-year senior bonds paying a coupon of 9.0%, 15bp-20bp tighter than its subordinated bonds at the time.

A flat-to-inverted rupee yield curve is likely to provide a further catalyst for long-term issues. At current benchmarks, an Indian company with a local Triple A rating can expect to raise 15-year money at a yield only 25bp higher than for one-year funding.

Modi's government has already approved a number of stalled infrastructure projects, and there is a strong case for banks to fix their asset-liability mismatches. The previous government set an ambitious infrastructure investment target of US$1trn in the five years ending 2017. Nearly half of this investment was to come from the private sector, including banks - split roughly into US$150bn of equity capital and about US$350bn of debt.

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