Bring on the pomegranate

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: has long been a net food importer and whose people suffer from widespread nutrition deficiencies. Pomegranates are, at best, only part of the solution. One Afghan development expert says the country needs a synergy between a variety of alternative crops, infrastructural development, better governance, security and time—perhaps up to 20 years.

For now, the opium poppy’s biggest foe is its own success. Opium prices have dropped over the past four years as the supply from Afghanistan has consistently outstripped global demand. Moreover, food prices have risen sharply. The UN’s drugs survey for Afghanistan, released on November 27th, reports a 19% reduction in poppy production in the past year.

Some 18 out of 34 provinces are now poppy-free, up from 13 in 2007. The correlation between areas of Taliban instability and poppy production has become ever more pronounced—98% of Afghan poppies are grown in just seven, highly unstable, southern provinces. Helmand alone accounts for 66% of the total crop. The Taliban and drugs mafias operate symbiotically; the former finance themselves from the drugs trade to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars a year, while the latter have a vested interest in insecurity that encourages poppy cultivation.

The UN reckons the drugs industry has shrunk from $4 billion to $3.4 billion (equivalent to around 30% of the licit economy). The price gap per hectare between opium and wheat has narrowed from 10:1 to around 3:1 or less. This suggests that poppy production may continue to drop. Rising food prices may be good for the war against poppy, but hurt many Afghans. The UN’s World Food Programme estimates that the cost of food for the average Afghan family has risen from 50% of income to around 85% in some areas during the last year. Even the healthy pomegranate cannot cure all of Afghanistan’s ills.