Bring on the pomegranate

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: The Koran mentions the pomegranate as one of the fruits found in paradise, and medical research suggests it may help those wanting to extend their stay in this world. Rich in antioxidants, the pomegranate is promoted in the West as a defence against prostate cancer, heart disease and other illnesses. So in Afghanistan, where the United Nations reports another hefty Afghan opium harvest this year, the hope is that this life-giving fruit can displace the life-sapping drug trade that is closely tied to the Taliban insurgency.

In early November the Afghan agriculture ministry and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) held a World Pomegranate Fair at a model farm on the edge of Kabul. The organisers pointed out that pomegranate prices had quadrupled in five years, making the fruit a potential rival to the lucrative poppy.

Bill Phillimore, a Californian magnate producing juices branded as POM Wonderful, told a group of craggy Afghan farmers how his company makes multimillion-dollar profits from the fruit. His audience was bemused. “The thing we wanted was some vital instructions on how to grow our pomegranate trees but they have just given us this book, which is empty,” said Gulam Haider, a 60-year-old farmer from Kapisa province.

Kandahar, in the south of the country, produces perhaps the world’s best pomegranates, medium-sweet ruby-red fruit that are savoured by connoisseurs, particularly in India. But Kandahar also lies in the heart of Taliban and opium country. That is only the start of the problem. All attempts to develop Afghanistan as an agricultural exporter suffer from fundamental difficulties: lack of fertiliser and pesticides, a poor road network, shortages of electricity and cold-storage depots, and only rudimentary packaging. Add the country’s landlocked geography and Afghan agriculture remains perennially uncompetitive.

Mannish Gaba, an Indian fruit importer, complains that Afghan pomegranate farmers have only wooden boxes in which to pack their produce. This damages the fruit. Strict border controls mean that Afghan lorries must be completely unloaded twice on their way to Delhi to satisfy Pakistani and Indian border officials.

Afghan poppy-watchers are cynical about the chances of alternative crops producing quick results. Mint, saffron and cotton are just three of the crops that have been promoted, yet all have so far failed to make a dent in Afghanistan’s only significant export. Some agricultural experts also argue that the outside world’s relentless focus on developing agricultural exports is perverse in a country that has long been a net food importer and whose people suffer from widespread nutrition deficiencies. Pomegranates are, at best, only part of the solution. One Afghan development expert says the country needs a synergy between a variety of alternative crops, infrastructural development, better governance, security and time—perhaps up to 20 years.

For now, the opium poppy’s biggest foe is its own success. Opium prices have dropped over the past four years as the supply from Afghanistan has consistently outstripped global demand. Moreover, food prices have risen sharply. The UN’s drugs survey for Afghanistan, released on November 27th, reports a 19% reduction in poppy production in the past year.

Some 18 out of 34 provinces are now poppy-free, up from 13 in 2007. The correlation between areas of Taliban instability and poppy production has become ever more pronounced—98% of Afghan poppies are grown in just seven, highly unstable, southern provinces. Helmand alone accounts for 66% of the total crop. The Taliban and drugs mafias operate symbiotically; the former finance themselves from the drugs trade to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars a year, while the latter have a vested interest in insecurity that encourages poppy cultivation.

The UN reckons the drugs industry has shrunk from $4 billion to $3.4 billion (equivalent to around 30% of the licit economy). The price gap per hectare between opium and wheat has narrowed from 10:1 to around 3:1 or less. This suggests that poppy production may continue to drop. Rising food prices may be good for the war against poppy, but hurt many Afghans. The UN’s World Food Programme estimates that the cost of food for the average Afghan family has risen from 50% of income to around 85% in some areas during the last year. Even the healthy pomegranate cannot cure all of Afghanistan’s ills.