Benchmark JGBs rise ahead of US polls

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Benchmark Japanese government bonds inched up on Monday ahead of the US presidential election.  (Reuters) Benchmark Japanese government bonds inched up on Monday ahead of the US presidential election. (Reuters)
SummaryBenchmark Japanese government bonds inched up on ahead of the US presidential election.

Benchmark Japanese government bonds inched up on Monday ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday and a vote in the Greek parliament over a new austerity package later in the week.

The 10-year yield dipped 0.5 basis point to 0.770 percent, while 10-year JGB futures rose 8 ticks to 144.14, breaking above t h eir 14-day moving average at 144.12.

If (Barack) Obama wins (the U.S. election), then the risk market would be modestly sold off. U.S. Treasury yields, and accordingly JGB yields, may face bullish pressure, said Yuya Yamashita, rates strategist at J.P. Morgan.

If (Republican candidate Mitt) Romney wins, the risk market would show a good performance. Our U.S. strategist expects under the Romney victory scenario, 10-year U.S. Treasuries would rise to 2 percent. Then JGBs would come under bearish pressure.

Greece's government will present a new austerity package to parliament on Monday. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' package of 13.5 billion euros ($17.3 billion) in cost cuts and tax hikes is expected to be voted on Wednesday along with measures making it easier for firms to hire and fire workers.

Yields on both 20-year and 30-year debt edged 0.5 basis point higher, to 1.685 and 1.945 percent respectively.

Barclays said the benchmark 10-year yield was unlikely to rise above 0.80 percent due to the weak global economic outlook, even though U.S. jobs data for October came in better than expected.

Although U.S. employment data beat expectations, U.S. yields ended largely flat on the day. The global economic cycle likely bottomed around September, but in the absence of demand-driving sectors, the pace of recovery is likely to be modest, Barclays said in a note.

The duration of monetary accommodation in major economies has yet to be influenced substantially by fundamentals. Indeed, if the U.S. presidential election give rise to negative views in risk asset markets linked to the U.S. fiscal cliff and financial regulation, long-term yields could even come under downward pressure. ($1 = 0.7785 euros)

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