Two decades ago, it was an extremely educative experience to listen to Professor Kazushi Okhawa who visited the Centre for Development Studies in Thiruvanant-hapuram, Kerala, to initiate a project on the relevance of Japan’s economic development to developing countries like India. Since then, it has always fascinated one to keep abreast of the research of Japanese institutions on India. It was therefore with great interest that one read these two discussion papers* from the University of Tsukuba in Ibaraki.
Trends in agricultural productivity between 1970 and 1993 is the focus of the first paper co-authored by Anit Mukherji and Yoshimi Kuroda. The time period chosen has been dictated by the fact that it follows the introduction of the seed-water-fertiliser packages termed as the Green Revolution. Subsequently, there has been an effort to increase agricultural productivity through scientific methods throughout India. What then does the relevant data indicate on trends in total factor productivity (TFP) in agriculture?
If one abstracts from any discussion on the methodology adopted to measure total factor productivity and the quality of data, the story these authors relate is that there have been substantial improvements in total factor productivity at the national level - especially from the late 1970s to the late 1980s - but there are wide divergences across 14 important states. At an all-India level, the trend growth rate total factor productivity thus shows an acceleration from 1.45 percent between 1973 and 1980 to 2.33 percent in the 1980s. But since then, there has been a discernible decline in total factor productivity growth to 1.21 percent till 1993.
The total factor productivity growth pattern thus is consistent with the favourable impact of the Green Revolution in the 1970s, which gathered strength till the first half of the 1980s. According to Mukherji and Kuroda, the experience of the years from the second half of the 1980s indicates that the Green Revolution has perhaps run its course and that it would be “difficult to sustain a high rate of total factor productivity growth in the absence of a major technological breakthrough in the field of agricultural science”.
During the 1970s,