We initiate coverage on Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd, Indiaís largest private port developer, with an 'Outperform' share price rating and a target price of Rs 186, implying a 24% upside.
With or without Abbot, gearing set to fall: Despite Abbot Pointís (Adani-owned coal terminal in Australia) divestment addressing gearing concerns at APSEZ, concerns over the $807m of corporate guarantees provided to Abbotís lenders continue to exist. While such concerns are valid, our analysis suggests that APSEZís consolidated gearing is set to decline (from 3.4x as on Mar-2013 to 1.4x as on Mar-2016) even in the worst-case scenario of Abbot Point returning to APSEZís balance sheet. This is likely to be driven by strong core operating cash flows from flagship asset, Mundra Port and reducing losses at Abbot Point.
Further, APSEZ has already incurred a bulk of capex in the development of its port assets and incrementally, we expect only Rs 28 bn capex until FY17. However, reported operating cash flows have been impacted by a sharp increase in loans and advances (Rs 47 bn during FY13/H1FY14), which the management has attributed to cash deployment to earn higher yields.
Concern of Adani Power stress spill-over overstated: Potential diversion of port cash flows towards Adani groupís stressed power business (Adani Power) is another key concern for APSEZ. However, APSEZ should continue to largely remain insulated from stress at Adani Power. In the worst-case scenario, our analysis still suggests no downside for APSEZ (from CMP-current market price) even if it is forced to fund up to 85% of Adani Powerís cash deficit over FY14-18e from Mundra Portís free cash flows. For this analysis, we assume that Adani Power does not get any PPA (power purchase agreement) renegotiation for its Mundra power projects, lenders do not agree to restructure any of Adani Powerís loans, and Mundra Port is forced to fund Adani Powerís cash flow deficit (for all years over FY14-18e) from its free cash flows, which we believe is an extremely pessimistic assumption.
Coal imports to drive Mundraís 14% cargo CAGR: We expect Mundra's 14% volume CAGR (compound annual growth rate) to be driven by 21% CAGR in coal volumes and 15% CAGR in container cargo. Our analysis suggests that Indiaís coal import needs should reach 247 mt by FY17 led by demand from domestic coal deficits. Mundra Port, due to its surplus coal capacity (100 mtpa by end-FY14) and superior