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: Recent economic woes—sparked off by rising oil and commodity prices earlier in the year, then sustained by the ongoing Wall Street crisis—would suggest that retailers should be a worried lot today. But accounts from across the world offer a mixed bag of good and bad news. In the US, with the holiday season standing around the corner, the National Retail Federation has said that sales growth will be down to the worst in six years. Other forecasts are even gloomier, with TNS Retail Forward predicting the worst holiday showing in 17 years. On the other hand, China, where economic growth has slowed for the fourth straight quarter, is yet seeing retail sales growing at close to the fastest pace in at least nine years.

As for India, although some headlines have been focusing on organised retail taking a hit, most analysts remain upbeat about future prospects. A Northbridge Capital report released late last month finds that this segment is growing at 40% a year. Organised retail is currently valued at $300 million, with only 7.5% of the total retail pie, but this share is projected to grow to 20% by 2010. There are other reports offering other figures, but what they all have in common is 1) a certain bullish tone on growth projections and 2) a certitude that a big chunk of this growth is going to take place in the country’s hinterlands, which extend from tier II and tier III towns to rural India.

By some accounts, the rural market puts away almost 50% of the goods consumed in the country and about 35% of the offtake for FMCG products. And the affluent sector in rural India is growing faster than the urban one, with per-households spending in rural India forecast to reach current urban levels by 2017. The news is good even on the employment front, with an Icrier study showing that the 3.93 million jobs added in rural retail during 2000-05 put the urban growth of 0.51 million to shame.