The notional imperative

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based on consumption expenditure surveys in which other attributes of surveyed households are also collected. These surveys do not quantify government expenditures, but merely provide a profile of access to various services. The data, however, offers important pointers to the effectiveness of these programmes and expenditures. And what they often show is that the poor do not have access to these services. Universalising access to basic services remains an unmet challenge. But can one measure the effort based on utilisation statistics?

Taking food requirements first, at a basic level, a robust public distribution system (PDS) is expected to provide the poor access to food at reasonable prices. But clearly the PDS cannot do everything. Bear in mind that foodgrain distributed through the PDS now exceeds 35 million tonnes, double the level of offtake some 10 years ago. The coverage has expanded and, in principle, more of the poor have been brought under the system. The level is now lower than the offtake in 2003-04 and 2004-05, but the ability to provide higher quantities of grain through the PDS over a longer period is a reflection of the capacity to spend more. The cost is not small. The food subsidy bill is expected to exceed Rs 32,000 crore in this year’s Budget. If gaps between procurement and issue prices widen, given the current inflationary conditions, the subsidy bill should be much greater than the budgeted level. But is the entire expenditure on the PDS to be taken as expenditure on poverty reduction? The data challenges in this context are formidable.