The big remaining question

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The day before the Indiana primary, Hillary Clinton spoke in a fire station. Behind her was a fire engine. On it stood beefy firemen, framed by the Stars and Stripes. The crowd was thus reminded that Mrs Clinton is tough but caring. She did not quite promise to pluck each voter from a burning building, but she left the distinct impression that she might.

Mrs Clinton is pummelling home the message that she is a fighter who never gives up. She says so endlessly and offers subtle visual cues, such as the chap in boxing gloves standing behind her during her “celebration” speech on polling night. But even the most dogged fighters are sometimes outclassed. Barack Obama flattened her by 56% to 42% in the North Carolina primary on May 6th, and held her to a narrow two-point victory in Indiana, a state that she should have won easily. Mrs Clinton has not quite been knocked out, but she is kneeling on the canvas and groping for her mouth-guard.

Mr Obama now leads the race for the Democratic nomination by some 150 delegates. The last six contests will yield only 217 more. Since these will be allocated proportionally, Mrs Clinton cannot plausibly catch him. To win, she needs to do two things.

First she must persuade the Democratic Party to reinstate delegates from Florida and Michigan, states which were disqualified for holding their primaries too early. That is unlikely. Second, she must persuade a fat majority of unelected superdelegates to overturn the will of Democratic primary voters. Unless some gargantuan scandal suddenly engulfs Mr Obama, which seems improbable, they cannot do this without enraging most rank-and-file Democrats and nearly all blacks. That would be foolish, to put it mildly.

Pressure is mounting on Mrs Clinton to pull out. She has little money left and even less hope of victory. She could doubtless win West Virginia this week and Kentucky the week after. Both states are full of downscale whites, who typically favour her over Mr Obama. But what then?

The undecided superdelegates could end the race now, if enough of them decide to throw their weight behind

Mr Obama. Some of these party bigwigs are unsure which candidate they prefer. Some are waiting to hear what voters in their home state think. Some want to make sure they back the winner. Both camps are frantically courting them.