The Year that Was AND The Year to Come

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Mark Mobius:  Jan 16 2012, 01:50 IST
In 2011, perceptions regarding the composition of the global economy underwent a shift—instead of the US being considered as the world’s key growth engine, investors began to realise that large emerging economies such as China and India were increasing their contribution to global GDP. While the US saw its long-term credit rating downgraded in August and the eurozone was the centre of heightened worries about sovereign debt for much of the year, some emerging economies witnessed positive growth in 2011.

That is not to say there were not challenges. As most developed nations continued to implement very loose monetary policy measures, washing much of the global financial system with liquidity, many emerging countries had to reckon with higher prices for goods and services, appreciating currencies and, in some cases, ‘imported’ inflation. In their fight against high inflation, several emerging-market central banks embarked on tightening monetary policies for much of the year, which led to investors worrying about the prospects for economic growth. Indeed, the high-growth economies of China and other emerging Asian and Latin American countries lost some momentum as the year wore on, but to us they now appear poised for softer landings than their developed-market counterparts.

Worries also surfaced during the year about the impact of slowing exports on emerging markets, due to lower growth in major trading partners such as the US and Europe. However, strong domestic demand was a key driver of growth in 2011 in some emerging markets, especially in Russia, Turkey and Asia, with exports between

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