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Special report | The world economy

Shifting the balance


Posted: 2008-10-15 23:05:19+05:30 IST
Updated: Oct 15, 2008 at 2305 hrs IST

Just under ten years ago, during the emerging-market financial crises, Time magazine ran a cover headlined “The committee to save the world”. It showed Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve; Robert Rubin, the treasury secretary; and Larry Summers, his deputy. Inside was a breathless account of how this trio of Americans had saved the world economy from calamity by masterminding IMF rescue packages for cash-strapped Asian countries through weekend meetings and late-night conference calls.

Today the threats facing the global economy are graver than they were a decade ago, yet it would be hard to know whom to put on such a cover. Wall Street is at the centre of the mess, so America’s stature and intellectual authority has plunged. Rather than staving off defaults in Asia, Mr Paulson, treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, are battling to prevent the implosion of their own financial system. Instead of dictating tough terms to Asian governments, they have been begging Congress for public money to deal with Wall Street’s most toxic securities.

But even as the crisis spreads far beyond America, few others have so far shown much sign of leadership. Europe is rife with Schadenfreude at America’s travails but its politicians have been slow to recognise the scale of their own problems. China, the biggest, most resilient emerging economy and the one with the deepest pockets, has stood quietly on the sidelines. The IMF provides useful analysis but has no political clout.

The only institutions that have co-operated, and creatively so, are the rich world’s central banks. Even as many politicians have grandstanded and pointed fingers, the ECB, the Fed, the Bank of England and others have tried to stem panic by flooding financial markets with liquidity, lending eye-popping sums of money against all manner of collateral.

Unfortunately, central bankers—however creative—cannot sort out this mess with injections of liquidity alone. That is because it is a crisis of solvency as well as liquidity. The bursting of the biggest housing and credit bubble in history has caused a banking bust that will probably turn out to be the biggest since the Depression, affecting many countries simultaneously. Across the rich world banks are short of capital; many are insolvent. As they deleverage, they will force down asset prices and weaken economies that are already stumbling, so the mess will only worsen. Uncertainty and panic have already amplified the...

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