Monsoon may begin its early withdrawal from Rajasthan: COLA

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The south-west monsoon, despite its erratic behavior in the previous month, has managed to breach the national average. The recorded average cumulative rainfall over the country from June 1 to August 20 has been 2% more than the normal of 635.6 mm for the period. Only 5 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions received scanty rains, while 9 received excess and 22 received normal rains. At the micro-level, only 23% of the meteorological districts received deficient to scanty rains, while 77% received excess to normal rains. But there are areas of concern. Marathwada, north interior Karnataka, Kerala and a major part of northeastern India, with the exception of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh have received poor rainfall. The week ended August 20 has shown some disturbing trends with eastern Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka, Kerala left dry.

There are indications that rainfall over northwestern India and Gujarat may decrease as normal withdrawal course of the monsoon from the Rajasthan-Pakistan border begins around September 1. The country's official weather forecasting agency, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has however, so far not indicated the withdrawal of the SW-Monsoon. But the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) has predicted dry weather over Rajasthan, Gujarat and northwestern India till the end of the month, almost signifying an early withdrawal of the monsoon. COLA, in its advanced forecast till September 8, also says that these regions would be left dry. Dry weather is also predicted over major parts of Pakistan

According to COLA, rainfall would not improve over Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and north interior Karnataka. It would decrease over the Tamil Nadu coast, while the remaining parts of the country would experience good rains.

Widespread rainfall in August has, however, caused a flood situation in major parts of the country like northwestern India, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam and West Bengal. According to the August 21 data of the Central Water Commission, there were four high, 22 moderate and 28 low flood situations in different reservoirs in the country. The total loss of crops, livestock and property on account of the floods in the monsoon season has accumulated to Rs 78,076.44 lakh.