Low-cost airlines are set for a great gig

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: The merger in 2007 of full-service carrier Kingfisher with Air Deccan and the latter’s re-branding has lent a new perspective to the low-cost carrier segment.

Analysts believe Air Deccan may now enter a middle area between low-cost airlines and full-service carriers, providing some basic frills but on the whole remaining low-cost.

This development could bring in new survival kits for low-cost airlines this year. In 2007, the segment exploded, with carriers like Air Deccan, Spice jet and Goair stepping up operations. The year also saw the entry of the erstwhile Air Sahara as low-cost carrier JetLite under the Jet Airways banner.

Not just this, the merger of public carriers Indian Airlines and Air India, which created the National Aviation Company of India Ltd (Nacil) with Air India Express under its wings. Air India Express is the newly formed subsidiary of Nacil that operates the low-cost-carrier business of the public carrier.

But, as far as the overall low-cost carrier segment goes, the airlines themselves are optimistic about their future. “The segment will continue to drive the aviation landscape in the country and by 2010, we see the low-cost carriers together having around 60-70% market share in the country,” says Kapil Kaul, CEO, Indian Subcontinent and Middle-East, Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation. “Most of the travel in the domestic and international sectors will be driven by the low-cost carriers,” he adds.

All low-cost airlines have big expansion plans with new aircraft set to join their fleets, new routes in the pipeline and new sectors to be entered. But there will be some shakeout soon, says analysts.

Some of the low-cost carriers that are struggling may exit the business, while some others will join the market, Kaul says.

Air India Express and JetLite are already flying on international low-cost routes. Spicejet is in talks with international airports and is getting their infrastructure ready in case the civil aviation policy allows them to fly overseas routes without having to adhere to the strict five-year-operation norm.

Their optimism is not unfounded. This is because on one hand, the market share and the load factor numbers from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation show that the low-cost carriers have been growing month-on-month.

On the other, the market share and the load factor were falling for full-service carriers in the year 2007.