Linking box-office to online buzz

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: Filmmakers and distributors like us are ever anxious to know the box-office fate of our films once traditional advertising has kicked in. But with ‘online’ emerging as a powerful medium, the buzz on the Internet can actually predict whether a film stands a chance of becoming a box-office winner. In fact, American studios are known to keep a close watch on blogs and discussion forums to assess the sentiment on their forthcoming releases thereby helping marketing executives plan their communication and trade spends accordingly.

If the volume of buzz increases as the release of the movie approaches, it is an even better indicator of an impending hit. As many as ten weeks prior to release, films that eventually grossed $100 million in sales received eight times more buzz of films than those that did not. In short, as web chatter grows, pay days increase.

I was reading some more recent research findings (Collective Wisdom Of Movies), which indicated that critics do matter sometimes. Movies that received approval of more than 70% of the critics’ review saw a significant improvement in their earning potential. But for movies in the middle 20%-60%, reviews do not appear to have any major correlation with box-office success.

Not surprisingly, films featuring a low level of profanity fare better than those with higher classifications, which probably explains why established franchises, family romps, rom-coms and sit-coms tend to be preferred genres for viewing.

And if a typical wide release grosses 2.5 times its opening weekend, spending an additional $3 million-$5 million to advertise its second week can improve its earnings. Movie with low critics’ scores that had received the added support saw their earnings rise to 2.9 times opening weekend. Those with high critics’ scores and the added spend saw their earnings climb to 3.6 times opening.

Sex and the City

What can be better than having a high priestess of fashion premiering her keenly anticipated outing in the land of brie and fashion? Rumours are rife that the big screen version of the ever-popular Sex and the City could land a Cannes spot at the opening night at the Palais des Festivals. The television show has a broad appeal overseas because of which this huge US franchise is sure to go down exceedingly well at The Croisette, in terms of eyeballs and sizzle.

Even the timings would work. The movie gets released in many territories between May 28 and May 30, two weeks after the May 14 opening of the fest.

An opening night featuring either, Indiana Jones and Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (reportedly, the other contender) or Sex and the City would mean that Cannes has opened for the third year with an English-language film Wong Kar-Wai’s My Blueberry Nights and The Da Vinci Code opened in 2007 and 2006 respectively. That has not happened in a decade.