July rains likely to fall short by 12%

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New Delhi, May 10: Early indications show that the monsoon rains in July are likely to be deficient by 12%.

An advance forecast made by the Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulations (C-MMACS) shows that rainfall in July, the second month of the monsoon season, will be deficient — particularly over eastern and central India. The average rainfall deficiency over the country will be 12%.

Over eastern India, rainfall will be deficient by 21% and over central India it will be deficient by 12%. In the southern part of central India (south-central India) and in south India, rainfall will fall short by 4%.

The July rainfall over northeastern India will, however, be 12% more than the normal. In the remaining parts of the country, the rainfall will be marginally (ie 2% to 4%) above normal. In north India, rainfall will be 3% above normal, in western India it will be 4% above normal and in Andamans it will be 2% above normal.

The C-MMACS advance forecast shows that the rain gods may play truant this year as they did last year. In the previous year, there was good rains in June, but the matters turned worst in July with a deficient rainfall. Though the situation began to improve gradually in August, the month also ended with a deficient rainfall. Rainfall in July and August are crucial for agriculture. Due to deficient monsoon rains in these two months, production of all major kharif (summer) crops, barring cotton, declined sharply.

On April 19, both FE and The Indian Express, quoting forecasts made by several global models, said that monsoon rains would be good, while the rains in the subsequent three months might turn deficient. Projecting neutral El Nino conditions in June, the global models said there was 50% chances of El Nino factor aggravating in subsequent months to harm monsoon prospects. El Nino phenomena is the warming of Pacific waters above the normal. Historically, El Nino in the monsoon period has resulted in poor rains.

The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department, however, has predicted 98% normal monsoon. But it has also said that it will revise the forecast in June-end after considering the changes in El Nino conditions.