India doesn’t count yet

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US — a second world nation? The thought may be radical to most, but that’s exactly what Parag Khanna, fellow at New America Foundation argues in The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order, saying the 21st century will be dominated by three first-world superpowers: the United States, China and the European Union. And they will compete for resources in nations in east Europe, Latin America and West Asia — countries of the second world. Suman Tarafdar tries to figure out where the world is headed.

Why do you see the US becoming a second world state? Where did it fail to read the geopolitical mutiny ?

The US did fail to read the ways in which pivotal second world states such as Iran and Venezuela could stand up to the US and sustain their defiance, not to mention the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. America’s imperial overstretch is palpable in its Economy that has been weakened by the war and exposed other domestic vulnerabilities such as a crumbling infrastructure, declining health and education standards, and deep political divisions. Those latter factors are hallmarks of second world countries.

The ‘deep differences in interests among the big three make forging a “culture of peace” difficult,’ yet the three are also bound to each other by economic ties. Where does the resolution lie?

A “culture of peace” can have several sources, such as mutual economic dependence in investment and trade, and also the reality of nuclear deterrence. It could be that rather than defining their interests in divergent terms — such as in the pursuit of exclusive access to oil and gas resources — powerful states such as China, India and America could focus on expanding supply through joint exploration and development. One sees this happening already between Japan, China, and Korea in the waters between them. Also, there are issues such as terrorism and climate that affect all powers as well, and need to be addressed jointly.

What about ‘Chindia’? Where will India be in future?