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: Rahul bajaj : Non-Executive Chairman, Bajaj Auto & Member of Parliament
Since September, there have been developments galore in India and across the world. The financial meltdown that started in the middle of September and the Mumbai terror attacks during November 26-29 have been the key developments. Citizens of India have at last said enough is enough. The government must act. I find that the government is determined to act, but in the absence of accountability in the bureaucracy and the resulting inefficiency and corruption, I am not sure how effective will be the implementation of the new laws that have been passed in the last session of parliament.
Subject to no more such events, the financial sector will slowly and gradually recover but it could take as long as six to nine months. As far as the real economy is concerned, what the US calls the ‘Mainstreet’, recovery may take longer and reverting to the situation existing in say the middle of ‘08 is unlikely before the end of ‘09.
I do not expect GDP growth during 2009-10 to be even equal to leave alone better than what it is in the current fiscal. The corporate sector, in particular, textiles, automotives, SMEs etc are in a very difficult position and no one knows when they would get back to the situation existing in the middle of 2008. I can only hope for better times for them by late 2009 or early 2010.
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