Falling Crop Yields Point Towards A Crisis In Agriculture

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New Delhi: Union agriculture minister Sharad Pawar has drawn repeated attention to the fact that while India is the second largest producer of most of the principal crops, it has the lowest yields per hectare in the world. India’s paddy yields of 2.9 tonnes per hectare thus contrast poorly with the US’ yields of 6.2 tonnes per hectare. Even in an emerging market context, our yields of wheat (2.5 tonnes) are lower than China’s 3.9 tonnes per hectare.

Not only are India’s yields the lowest, they are also declining sharply in recent years — clearly pointing to the depth of the agrarian crisis in India.

Mr Pawar, no doubt, has a broader agenda of making the Indian farmer a global player but this cannot be achieved unless the country’s agrarian economy is put on a sounder footing.

In this context, a Lok Sabha unstarred question no 95 on the variation in yields has disturbing implications.

Wheat conjures up images of lush golden fields in the countryside of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh. But the reality is that in all these states, per hectare yields have been declining in recent years. In Punjab, for instance, yields dropped from 4.6 tonnes per hectare in 2000-01 to 4.2 tonnes per hectare in 2002-03. These trends reflect the fact that the Green Revolution-associated productivity increases have long since plateaued off.

Disturbingly, this phenomenon is also observed for paddy yields across various states, especially south of the Vindhyas. The highest yields are in Tamil Nadu (5 tonnes per hectare) followed by Andhra (3.9 tonnes), Kerala (3.3 tonnes) and Karnataka (2.9 tonnes) in 2002-03. This particular year coincided with the worst drought in recent memory, but it is worth noting that (barring Kerala) yields have fallen in all of them since 2000-01.

As for pulses and edible oils, the outlook is in any case dismal as demand-supply imbalances have necessitated large scale imports. But even if the focus moves away from foodgrain to commercial crops, the pattern of yield decline is across-the-board. Take cotton in a state like Andhra in which 3,000 farmers have committed suicide since 1997. Yields have plunged since 2000-01. Even in Punjab, they are lower in 2002-03 than in 2000-01.

Sugarcane too exemplifies the ‘yield decline’ phenomenon.

But in this case a caveat is in order as there are four to five year cycles in production.