FE Editorial Monsoon mantra

The Financial Express
Posted: Monday, Jul 21, 2008 at 0033 hrs IST
Updated: Monday, Jul 21, 2008 at 0033 hrs IST

Font Size

Feedback

Discuss

Import of fodder seeds likely: Pawar Policy vacuum, supplies behind vegetable inflation India deposits rice, wheat seeds in Svalbard Vault

: The southwest monsoon, a lifeline for more than 75% of India’s 234 million farmers, has been regionally uneven so far. Looking at the distribution, concerns should be over the final output of key cash crops like cotton, oilseeds, pulses and sugarcane. Though most recent numbers show that total rainfall so far is 6% above-normal for the country as a whole, the gains are concentrated in a few large pockets, especially because of the 77% above normal rains in north west India due to heavy rains in Punjab (100%) Haryana (80%), western UP (86%) and eastern UP (79%). Though good rains in this rich agrarian belt is excellent news, this has to read with the sharp drop in rainfall in southern India (-34%) and central India (-3%). Regions most affected by low rainfall include Marathwada (-65%), north interior Karnataka (-50%), madhya Maharashtra (-41%), Kerala (-41%), Vidharbha (-36%), Telangana (-33%), Rayalseema (-30%), coastal Karnataka (-29%), southern interior Karnataka (-25%), Gujarat region (-24%) and Saurashtra (-22%). Rainfall has also been meagre in Assam and Meghalaya (-28%) and in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (-21%). Overall the number of meteorological sub-divisions registering deficient or scant rainfall has doubled from 7 last year to 14 in the current year taking their share up to almost 40% of the total number of sub regions, the highest in last four years. Another point to note: storage levels in the reservoirs as on July 11 this year was 38.44 billion cubic meters (bcm) against 56.30 bcm during the same period last year.

The good news despite this list of deficient rainfall regions is that the area under foodgrains seems to be largely unaffected. Though the total area sown so far in the current kharif season has fallen by around 1 million hectares to 38.7 million hectares, the decline has been largely confined to commercial crops like cotton and sugarcane. Sown area for cotton and sugarcane has dropped by 2.4 million and 1 million hectares, respectively. Sown area under foodgrains has, in fact, increased by 1.7 million hectares. Monsoon forecasters are talking of ‘subdued rainfall activity’ in key divisions like madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidharbha and also in Telengana and Rayalaseema in the south. Panic is uncalled for at this stage. But keep an eye on cash crop production.

Post Comments

Comments: (Limit 3,000 characters)

Name		Message
Email ID
Subject

TERMS OF USE:
The views, opinions and comments posted are your, and are not endorsed by this website. You shall be solely responsible for the comment posted here. The website reserves the right to delete, reject, or otherwise remove any views, opinions and comments posted or part thereof. You shall ensure that the comment is not inflammatory, abusive, derogatory, defamatory &/or obscene, or contain pornographic matter and/or does not constitute hate mail, or violate privacy of any person (s) or breach confidentiality or otherwise is illegal, immoral or contrary to public policy. Nor should it contain anything infringing copyright &/or intellectual property rights of any person(s).

I agree to the terms of use.