Blog cafe The beginning of the end?

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: Articles about whether America is in decline is a cyclical industry that rises and falls over about a 20-year cycle. The previous cycle started with Paul Kennedy’s bestseller of 1986, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, and was vigorously discussed during the next decade. It was finally dismissed after starting in the early years of the Reagan presidency there was more than 25 years of vigorous growth in GDP—much faster than in Western Europe—declines in unemployment to very low levels, and the complete absence of any inflationary pressure.

This gloom and doom industry has begun to grow again during the past few years. Kennedy had attributed his projected decline of the United States to its role as the world’s policeman, and the resulting spending on defense and military manpower and equipment, Yet, defense spending did not account for more than six percent of GDP, and some of the military spending went for military R&D and training that had carryover to civilian products and services, such as the development of the Internet, and the training of pilots. The new pessimists continue to blame America’s role as policeman, and in particular its protracted involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. They also see possible doom in the debacle in the US housing market, the high price of oil, and the current economic slowdown.

I generally do not subscribe to this gloom and doom school. I do agree that being the world’s policeman does take resources that could be producing civilian output, and countries in Europe and elsewhere free ride off of America’s efforts, but when done right this policeman’s role also makes the world a safer place in the future.The resources spent on military manpower and equipment is not large enough to have a serious effect on the growth of US civilian output.