Bird flu virus: A crisis waiting to explode

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: Health experts claim bird flu is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. Initially, it was seen as a few isolated cases in South-East Asia, may now be the beginnings of a global pandemic. The virus is spreading rapidly and has already reached as far as Russia. The World Health Organisation too has warned of the possibilities of a worldwide avian influenza outbreak. With no vaccine ready for commercial use, countries across the world have started stockpiling what limited drugs are available.

The world first heard of bird flu when it hit Hong Kong in 1997. The H5N1 strain of the virus caused severe respiratory problems for 18 people of which an alarming one-third died. Rapid destruction of Hong Kong’s entire poultry population reduced the chances of further direct transmission to humans and a possible epidemic. February 2003 saw 2 more cases of H5N1 avian influenza, which resulted in one death. But it was really the outbreak that came later that year which has culminated in the state of affairs today. Between December 2003 and now, more than a hundred human cases of bird flu have been reported across four countries in Asia - Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand - the last two being among the worst hit. Fatalities have occurred in over half the infected patients. The total number of human infections seems insignificant given the time period. However, it is a series of factors related to these outbreaks that is causing concern. To date, there has been no evidence of human-to-human transmission - a development that could very quickly give rise to a pandemic.

However, many experts have expressed a fear that it may only be a matter of time before the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu combines with the human influenza virus and mutates into a form that can be transmitted among people. And the H5N1 variety has already demonstrated a propensity to acquire genes from viruses infecting other animals like pigs.

Furthermore, despite the low level of human fatalities, tens of thousands of fowl have been infected. In most cases this has resulted in the relevant governments culling millions of birds to control the spread of the disease. Unfortunately, in some instances action was either delayed or not taken at all.