Bernanke may seek new ways to ease credit as Fed rate nears 1%


Posted: Friday, Oct 24, 2008 at 2354 hrs IST
Updated: Friday, Oct 24, 2008 at 2354 hrs IST


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Oct 23 : Federal Reserve officials are likely to bring interest rates down so aggressively over the next few months that they will have to search for fresh tactics to continue easing credit. The Fed's Open Market Committee will probably reduce the benchmark federal funds rate by half a point next week to 1 %, the lowest since May 2004, according to futures trading. The official rate has never been lower since the Fed made it an explicit target in the late 1980s.

Further cuts below 1 % could turn Fed Chairman Ben S Bernanke' s focus away from the main rate and toward more use of alternative tools. Those might include increasing its holdings of mortgage bonds to lower costs for homebuyers and purchasing securities directly from the Treasury in order to pump more cash into the economy, Fed watchers said. "If there is need for more stimulus, the Fed will buy up government debt'' to keep borrowing costs low, said Adam Posen, deputy director at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a co-author with Bernanke. That's tantamount to “turning government debt, as it is issued, into money.''

Bernanke has already thrown the central bank's balance sheet into action in unprecedented ways. Working with the New York Fed, the Board of Governors has rolled out 11 new programmes aimed at absorbing risk or making dollars available when banks don't want to loan.

The result: The central bank's assets, which include a loan to insurer American International Group Inc. and a pool of investments once held by Bear Stearns Cos., more than doubled to $1.772 trillion last week from a year-earlier total of $873 billion that comprised mostly Treasuries. The latest weekly figures are scheduled for release at 4:30 p.m. in Washington.

There's more to come. The Fed announced this week a backstop for money-market mutual funds to which it will commit another $540 billion. A commercial-paper program approved Oct. 7 could buy up to $1.8 trillion of securities. "The net effect of these facilities has been a truly staggering pace of growth in the Fed's balance sheet,'' said Jan Hatzius, chief US economist for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. When the Bank of Japan fought deflation and a banking collapse earlier this decade, its balance sheet ballooned to more than 30 % of gross domestic product as it pumped money into the economy, Hatzius said. He predicted "further rapid growth'' in...

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