: In Chinese Astrology, 2012 is the Year of the Black Dragon, which makes the most auspicious animal of the zodiac present another marketing opportunity—dragons can today be found all over from wine and leather bags to underwear. 2011 was the year of the crab—since the rebound from the 2008 crash, the behaviour of the crab is what global stock markets have emulated. Stocks have gained after new doses of loose monetary policy from central banks, and fallen in response to debilitating news from the eurozone, or from poor macroeconomic data.

History suggests that stock markets can move sideways for a decade after a big crash. It is reasonable to assume that 2012 will be like 2011, a sideways year with many twists and turns in response to political and economic developments.

The median forecast for US growth for 2012 is 1.8%—low in an absolute sense, but not recessionary. Brazil’s economy has stalled...