A wealth story from the banking sector is unfolding in YES Bank. Religare Institutional Research feels YES Bank can soar 100 per cent in the next three years. Shares of the bank have already jumped 242 per cent in the past six years to Rs 949.10 till May 13.
According to Religare, YES Bank is trading at nearly 40 per cent discount to its peers HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and IndusInd Bank on one-year forward price-to-book value. The brokerage house believe this discount will narrow as Yes Bank’s retail story begins to unfold.
Post the Reserve Bank of India’s asset quality review (AQR), Religare also derive more comfort on YES Bank’s asset quality. Given the structural changes underway at the bank and FY20 estimated ROA and ROE of around 2 per cent and 20 per cent, Religare expects the stock to re-rate from 2.35x to 2.75x by FY19-end, implying a three-year target price of Rs 2,000.
For the financial year ended March 2016, YES Bank reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 2529.69 crore, up 26.65 per cent, against Rs 1997.42 crore last year. The bank posted net profit of Rs 1611.26 crore and Rs 1300.68 crore in FY14 and FY13, respectively.
Religare sees PAT growth at 26 per cent CAGR over FY16-FY20 driven by a 24 per cent CAGR in loan growth, 40 basis points net interest margins and low credit cost. The brokerage house has a one-year target price of Rs 1,250 for YES Bank shares.
The key difference between other well-run retail private sector banks and YES Bank is the latter’s low retail loan share, according to Religare Institutional Research. “We interacted with YES’s retail asset management team and believe the bank has laid a strong foundation for building a well-diversified retail loan book by FY20. Management is targeting a retail share of around 45 per cent of total loans by FY20 (35 per cent as of FY16).”
G Chokkalingam, Founder, Equinomics Research & Advisory, said, “If asset quality is genuine then we can see minimum 30 per cent rise in YES Bank shares in 3 years.”
The share price of the company closed 3.19 per cent up at Rs 979.35 on Monday.