JLR Nov-15 wholesale volumes were up ~24% YoY (5% MoM) to 51,021units (v/s est. 46,953 units). We estimate ~11% volume growth in FY16, implying a residual monthly rate of 46,995 units or 12% growth for FY16. Land Rover grew by ~19% YoY to 41,952 units (v/s est. 37,769 units), while Jaguar grew by ~47% YoY to 9,069 units (est. of 9,184 units).
In terms of regional retail sales performance, US volumes grew by ~52% YoY, Europe volumes were up by 68% YoY and UK volumes grew by 70% YoY. However, China volumes were down 22% YoY.
Jaguar’s retail volumes were up by 33% YoY, led by XE which did volumes of 3,953 units (launched only in UK, Europe and China), rest complete portfolio saw double digit de-growth. Jaguar portfolio saw growth of 33% YoY.
Land Rover’s retail volumes were up 26% YoY, with growth across portfolio except RR-Evoque. We estimate TTMT’s consolidated EPS to grow ~13% CAGR over FY15-18. The stock trades at 11.6x/8.7x FY16/FY17 consolidated EPS.
We maintain ‘buy’ with a target peice of R471 (FY17 SOTP-based) for ordinary shares and R329 for DVR (~30% discount to TP for ordinary shares).