The jeera market is estimated to stay firm in the near and mid-term on lower stocks in the pipeline and export orders. Arrivals at the terminal market are low and stocks to usage are estimated at 18%, which is the lowest in two years. India is the world’s largest producer and consumer of jeera. While India consumes 75-80% of the commodity produced, the other producing countries export most of the product.
Angel Commodities reported that the jeera market is supported by reports of supply shortfall and fresh export enquiries. “Futures may trade sideways on reports of good production expected from new season crop. However, revival of demand from stockists’ amid dwindling stocks of quality jeera may support spot prices,” the report says.
Spot prices on Thursday evening at the NCDEX counter recorded R14,950 per quintal at the Unjha market. Kotak reports that jeera has been trading in a broad range of R14,500 and R17,000 per quintal since last six months. Prices are sustaining mainly due to low inventory with traders. “Delayed sowing may postpone the new crop arrivals by one month. This may widen the gap between supply and demand significantly before the onset of new season supplies. Empty pipeline may result in aggressive buying by the traders as the new season arrivals pick up,” Kotak sources said.
“Acreage for jeera is estimated to rise by 15% to 7.5 lakh hectares. In Gujarat, we estimate acreage to increase by 13 % while in Rajasthan acreage is estimated to rise by 16%. However, the acreage is seen lower by 4% when compared to the 5 year average. Hoping that weather would remain conducive till the harvest we forecast jeera production may increase by 13% to 4.05 lakh tonne,” Sudha Acharya of Kotak Commodity Services told FE. According to the data of Spices Board, Indian jeera exports during the current fiscal from April -September stood at 46,700 tonne as against 89,772 tonne in the corresponding period of last fiscal. Unit price of exports stood at R1,60.61 per kg in the six months of the current fiscal as against R111.20 in the last fiscal.
Jeera export during the last fiscal stood at 155,500 tonne valued at R1,838.20 crore as against at 121,500 tonne valued at R1,600 crore in FY 14. Indian jeera exports are higher for the past few years due to geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey. Higher exports has helped jeera stay firm in the domestic market despite production increasing.
“During the period January–March 2015 jeera exports will take cues from Indian production estimates and sowing prospects in Syria and Turkey. The ongoing unrest in these nations may keep the sowing intentions subdued,” Sudha added.