Market speculators betting on more monetary easing in China will probably be disappointed, state media Xinhua said in an editorial late Wednesday, as it would hamper efforts to reduce industrial overcapacity and remove asset bubbles.
“Market anticipation for more cuts is rising as moderate consumer inflation in July offered sufficient room for such manoeuvres,” Xinhua said.
“Those hoping for cuts, however, will probably be disappointed.”
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is unlikely to resort to frequent interest rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the second half of the year, Xinhua claims, noting that such moves would jeopardize the government’s efforts to reform bloated industrial sectors.
“Aggressive easing of the RRR and interest rates cuts will not only cause excessive liquidity but also dampen China’s efforts to reduce overcapacity and squeeze out asset bubbles,” the newspaper says.
Wednesday’s editorial was Xinhua’s second this week saying new rate cuts this year are unlikely.
Further loosening would likely put fresh depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, which helps exporters but risks capital flight.
The yuan’s central parity rate has softened more than 2 percent against the dollar in 2016.
The PBOC cut interest rates and RRR cuts in 2015, in an effort to maintain growth following a devastating stock market crash.
However, some analysts are expecting more interest rate cuts before end of 2016.
Reasons for reducing rates by the year end included a housing downturn and slower consumer spending, and signs that s inflation has peaked, according to a report from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
A debate over whether more monetary easing is on the way has simmered, especially after China’s state planner last week made a rare call for interest rate and RRR cuts “at the appropriate time”, though the comment was deleted frim its website later the same day.