China stocks rebounded on Monday morning, led by small-caps, as investors in them shrugged off Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.
But Hong Kong shares, which are more vulnerable to global market swings, continued to slide following Friday’s tumble, though the kind of panic sparked initially by the Brexit vote has eased.
On Friday, China indexes had a small fall. After a weak opening on Monday, the China market quickly moved into positive territory.
By the lunch break, the blue-chip CSI300 index was up 0.8 percent at 3,102.73 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index had gained 0.9 percent, to 2878.76 points.
“Brexit’s direct impact to China is limited, as China’s capital market is not fully open yet,” said Wu Kan, head of equity trading at Shanghai-based investment firm Shanshan Finance.
Lou Jiwei, China’s minister of finance, said at a meeting on Sunday that the repercussions and fallout from Brexit are “difficult to predict now. The knee-jerk reaction from the market is probably a bit excessive and needs to calm down and take an objective view.”
But some analysts quickly quantify Brexit’s impact on China’s economy.
Nomura lowered its China GDP growth forecast for 2016 from 6.2 percent to 6.0 percent, predicting Brexit would hurt exports to Europe, and hit sentiment in some areas of economic activity.
Hong Hao, chief strategist of BOCOM International, said that a loss of direct financial holdings, further deterioration in current and capital accounts due to capital flight and weakened bilateral trade are three contagion channels from Brexit that China faces.
“Interventions by central banks and national team have compromised the reliability of short-term market price signals,” he wrote.
On Monday, all main sectors rose in China, with Shenzhen’s start-up board ChiNext up 1.8 percent and consumer shares jumping nearly 3 percent.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index dropped 0.7 percent, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index lost 0.6 percent.