1. Australia, New Zealand dollars firm as calm encourages carry trade

Australia, New Zealand dollars firm as calm encourages carry trade

The Australian and New Zealand dollars held firm on Tuesday, having edged higher in the wake of soft U.S. economic news and as low volatility globally encouraged leveraged plays in higher yielding assets.

By: | Published: June 27, 2017 9:48 AM
The attraction of carry trade was clear against the yen, which pays a 10-year yield of 5 basis points compared to the 2.37 percent offered by Australian bonds.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars held firm on Tuesday, having edged higher in the wake of soft U.S. economic news and as low volatility globally encouraged leveraged plays in higher yielding assets. The Aussie stood at $0.7596, after touching a top of $0.7603 when a disappointing reading on U.S. durable good orders hit its U.S. counterpart. The kiwi was consolidating at $0.7293 and within striking distance of a recent four-month high peak at $0.7320.

Both currencies have benefited from calm conditions in markets which tend to favour carry trades, borrowing at low rates in one currency to invest in another with higher returns. Implied volatilities for most major currencies have been in a downtrend since January, while Wall Street’s main fear gauge for equities is at its lowest in a decade. All this tranquillity means there is less risk of investors being stopped out of their leveraged positions by sudden, large moves in currencies.

The attraction of carry trade was clear against the yen, which pays a 10-year yield of 5 basis points compared to the 2.37 percent offered by Australian bonds. As a result, the Aussie was testing three-month peaks on the yen at 85.07 having climbed from as low as 81.69 early in June. The kiwi was at its highest since February at 81.62 yen , having climbed almost 8 percent since April.

“Global risk sentiment remains elevated, supporting the NZD and hurting the safe-haven yen,” said Westpac currency analyst Imre Speizer. “There is scope for the rise to be sustained towards the 82.50 area.” New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields 1 basis points lower at the long end of the curve.

Australian government bond futures were little changed as debt markets globally awaited a speech from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen later on Tuesday. The three-year bond contract was flat at 98.180, while the 10-year contract added 1.5 ticks to 97.5950.

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