Asian share markets were mixed on Monday as political uncertainty globally kept the mood cautious, while the U.S. dollar dithered in a tight range ahead of a busy week for Federal Reserve events. Turnover was light with U.S. markets closed for the Presidents Day holiday. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 percent and back toward a 19-month peak reached last week. Japan’s Nikkei went flat after domestic data showed exports disappointed in January even as imports outpaced forecasts. Shanghai stocks added 0.9 percent and expectations of solid economic growth in China kept commodities such as copper and iron ore well bid.
Spreadbetters predicted opening gains of 0.2 to 0.3 percent for bourses in Europe while E-mini futures for the S&P 500 added 0.1 percent. Shares in Unilever Plc could retreat after U.S. food company Kraft Heinz Co withdrew its proposal for a $143 billion merger. Unilever’s shares jumped 13 percent on Friday on news of the bid. Wall Street ended last week on a roll, with all three major indexes making historic highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a seventh straight record close.
A host of results from retailers are due this week, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc, Macy’s and Home Depot Inc. The results will be watched for a read on spending as well as for commentary from executives on President Donald Trump’s proposal to tax imports. On the interest rate front, no less than five heads of regional Federal Reserve bank are due to speak this week while Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell appears on Wednesday, when minutes of the last policy meeting are also due. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said on Monday in Singapore that she would be comfortable raising interest rates at this point if the economy kept performing the way it has.
Speculation the central bank could hike as soon as March has generally underpinned the U.S. dollar, though large long positions leave the market vulnerable to sudden pull backs. On Monday, the dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies at 100.880 and a fraction firmer on the yen at 113.05. European politics kept the euro skittish. Germany’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) moved ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in an opinion poll by the Emnid institute for the first time since 2006, Bild am Sonntag said.
On Friday, news the French left could unite behind one candidate in the presidential elections seemed to increase the chance of anti-EU, anti-immigrant Marine Le Pen winning, and knocked the single currency lower. The euro stood at $1.0616 on Monday, having fallen 0.6 percent on Friday, not far from the recent five-week low of $1.0520. Risk aversion sparked a rally in German bonds while widening the spread against French debt.
Oil prices were a shade lower having suffered the first weekly decline in five weeks as the market weighed rising U.S. drilling and record stockpiles against efforts by major producers to cut output to reduce a global glut. Brent futures were up 4 cents at $55.85 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery added 5 cents to $53.83 a barrel.