1. Analysts positive on Reliance, but not everything is fine

Analysts positive on Reliance, but not everything is fine

While most analysts are bullish on RIL due to sustained growth momentum and prospects of cash flows turning positive in the near future, some others have concerns on continued capital expenditure in telecom with low visibility on expected earnings.

By: | Published: April 25, 2017 2:03 PM
Reliance Industries shares surged over 3.55% today to hit a fresh nine-year high, riding on the back strong fiscal fourth quarter results and record net profit, with the stock currently trading at Rs 1,432.00.

Reliance Industries shares surged over 3.55% today to hit a fresh nine-year high, riding on the back strong fiscal fourth quarter results and record net profit. With the stock now trading at Rs 1,432.00, most analysts are bullish on the energy, petrochemicals, retail and telecom conglomerate due to sustained growth momentum and prospects of cash flows turning positive in the near future. Even so, some others have raised concerns on continued capital expenditure in telecommunication business with low visibility on expected earnings.

Here is what analysts have to say about RIL shares:

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley has said that it maintains its overweight rating on RIL and has recommended a price target of Rs 1,506. The time lines on the execution of energy projects should raise confidence in earnings, it added. Morgan Stanley went on to say that the capital expenditure guidance is within expectations and that they estimate positive future cash flows from these expenditures by the end of the current financial year 2017-18.

The investment bank expects RIL’s Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) to remain above mid-cycle level and the Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) from telecom business to breakeven in FY18.

JP Morgan

JP Morgan has maintained its neutral rating on RIL, while raising its price target to Rs 1,310 from Rs 1,240. The firm’s price target on RIL shares is 8.52% lower than its current market price.

JP Morgan said it found management’s guidance on timelines and EBITDA across core projects very positive. However, the investment bank cautioned that Reliance Jio’s estimated capital expenditure of Rs 18,000 crore in Q1FY18, coupled with no clarity on when spending would stabilise, is a negative. JP Morgan said that any further extension of discounted offers from Reliance Jio will also be negative.

Edelweiss Finance

Edelweiss Finance said it expects more surprises for Reliance Industries going ahead. Also, the research and brokerage firm said it is not making any material change in RIL’s GRM estimate for next two quarters. The market was valuing RIL’s telecom business negatively but currently the investors are factoring Rs 480 per share for the telecom business, it said.

KRChoksey

Investment advisory firm KRChoksey Investment Managers Pvt Ltd expects RIL to trade in the levels of Rs 1,600-1,800. Deven Choksey, managing director of KRChoksey Investment Managers said that RIL has seen profitable growth across all segments of business in Q4FY17, adding he expects RIL to sustain high GRMs going forward as well, BTVi reported.

Jefferies

Jefferies, the global investment banking firm, has raised its price target on RIL to Rs 1252 from Rs 1210, with a ‘Hold’ rating. The new price target is at 12.57% discount to the current market price.

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