Mukesh Ambani’s big bang launch of Reliance Jio has taken the telecom industry by storm. Six years after re-entering the telecom space RIL chairman announced attractive tariffs at the company’s 42nd AGM, which are much lower than incumbents and is surely going to ignite a major rate war as existing operators will do their best to retain their customers. Established telecom players saw their share prices dip further on Friday, after analysts slashed price targets on some of them. Analysts say that Jio’s tariff structure, if it resonates with customers, could usher in the entry of bundled voice and data plans in the country.
Here are the live updates on Reliance Jio 4G launch
4:00pm: Idea Cellular: Will start money service in FY18. Demand unlikely for 700 Mhz spectrum band at auction (As per PTI reports)
3:30pm: Edelweiss Securities: We don’t expect incumbents to match RJio’s unlimited voice offering, but instead exploit large gaps in price points to target specific users. With only 2 packages priced under Rs 500, which are likely to accommodate maximum number of users, we expect incumbents to offer multiple packages in this band to target different set of users to minimise churn. It added however that users would perceive more value in RJio due to the unlimited offerings and free usage till December 2016, leading to strong demand for its services.
3:20pm: As per PTI, analysts also expect to see 20-25 per cent drop in voice and data realisation for incumbents over the next four quarters. They said the incumbent players will eventually move to bundled plans with unlimited voice, which could hurt revenue growth rates.
3:10pm: Motilal Oswal: A subscriber base of 75 million with an ARPU of Rs 244 would help RJio generate revenues of about Rs 18,400 crore, but remain loss-making at EBITDA level (Rs 1,580 crore). Assuming 400 minutes of usage (MOUs in line with Bharti) and 80 per cent off-net calls for the 100 million subscriber target indicated by RJio, annual interconnect cost to be borne by RJio works out to be Rs 5,300 crore…We expect RJio to break even in the third year at EBITDA level.
2:55pm: Goldman Sachs expects RJio to hit EBIDTA break-even by FY 2019-20 with 75 million subscribers. The current monthly data usage in India is between 600-900MB, say industry watchers. Given RJio’s aggressive pricing structure, its strategy is to drive up ARPUs through higher usage.
2:50pm: IDFC Securities: We believe R-Jio would need 75-80 million subscribers with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of Rs 180 for EBITDA break-even over the next 2-3 years –- execution and customer care is the key. It added that growth for RJio would primarily be driven by market share shift from fringe players and modest gain from incumbents, who have a relatively weak data footprint.
2:30pm: Jimeet Modi, Samco Securities: Whenever any late entrant in any industry adopts penetration pricing to capture the market share, it does destabilise the existing players
1:30pm: According to a survey conducted by citizen engagement platform LocalCircles, 43 per cent respondents rated data services of incumbent operators as poor and 27 per cent rated voice services below the mark
1:00pm: Reliance, through its ads today, dedicated the Jio 4G service to the Modi government’s flagship Digital India project.
12:35pm: Bharti Airtel dropped up to 1.4 percent before bouncing back. It slumped 6.3 percent on Thursday
12:30pm: Idea Cellular extends losses, shedding as much as 3.4 percent
12:25pm: Suresh Mahadevan to ET Now: See an opportunity for market leaders to do well in data segment.
12:20pm: Suresh Mahadevan to ET Now: Low data prices in short term will impact EBITDA, but will increase pie.
12:15pm: Suresh Mahadevan to ET Now: Need to wait and see what the incumbents have to offer; may match Reliance Jio’s offer.
12:10pm: Suresh Mahadevan to ET Now: Reliance Jio has not invented something new; limiting itself to only one tech.
12:05pm: Suresh Mahadevan to ET Now – Jio having a superior network is a huge misconception.
11:45am: Narendra Gupta CEO of Tathya Consulting on how Reliance Jio vs COAI controversy is hurting customers
11:40am: COAI tO BTVI: Incumbents will now have to offer products which are value for money
11:35am: COAI to BTVI – Competition will have new things to offer post clarity on RIL’s tariff
11:30am: COAI to BTVI – Competition is always better for consumers as well as industry
11:15am: Sandip Sabharwal to ET Now: Competitive scenario seen in Telecom sector. No longer a value pick post Jio launch.
10:55am: Deutsche Bank cut Idea’s price target to Rs 131 from Rs 137
10:50am: JPMorgan analyst Viju George in a note to clients: Free voice is key to making Reliance Jio’s integrated plans much more compelling cost-wise than those of peers. RJio has disrupted industry pricing more than we imagined, with consequences for incumbents likely more difficult than we expected.
10:45am: George trimmed his price target on Bharti Airtel to Rs 290 from Rs 335 and that on Idea Cellular to Rs 85 from Rs 100.
10:40am: Idea shares were down nearly 3% in early trading, while Airtel slid less than a percent. Shares of Reliance Communications, the telecom venture run by Mukesh’s younger brother Anil Ambani, also fell 1.7 percent.
10:35am: Credit Suisse analyst Sunil Tirumalai in a note: We have been concerned over Jio’s launch for a couple of years, and the event is turning out to be as negative as we had feared.
Mukesh Ambani unveiled mega plans for Reliance Jio: Here is what happened on Thursday
5:42pm: Bharti Airtel: Bangladesh court approves merger of arm into Robi Axiata (As reported in BTVI)
5:40pm: Bharti Airtel: Bangladesh court approves merger of arm into Robi Axiata (As reported in BTVI)
4:10pm: Vijay Singh, CEO & MD, AaramShop: Jio reinvents data and its uses
4:00pm: Nandan Nilekani: Great to see Reliance Jio harness the power of Aadhaar! This will be a game changer.
3:55pm: Nandan Nilekani: What a week! Thu 25/8 – UPI; Thu 1/9 – Jio. Banking and Telecom will never be the same again!
3:45pm: Sunil Jain, Managing Editor Finacial Express – Entering the data era: With free voice, RJio changes telco paradigm
3:40pm: Dharmesh Kant, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Securities: No doubt tariff plans for voice and data is going to be a game changer for telecom industry. Though, topline from telecom business will start trickling in; however big concern arises on timelines of achieving operating break-even point in context of tariff policy deployed.
3:35pm: Telecom analysts say Reliance Jio has delivered a knockout punch on pricing of voice and data tariffs
3:30pm: The broader NSE index closed down 0.13 percent at 8,774.65, while the benchmark BSE index closed 0.10 percent lower at 28,423.48. Bharti shares fell 6.3 percent, their biggest single-day decline since August 2012, while Reliance dropped 2.9 percent.
3:27pm: UBS on Reliance Jio: Do not expect high-end customers to switch to Jio overnight
3:25pm: UBS on Reliance Jio: Weakness in Airtel & Idea offers opportunity for investors
3:23pm: UBS on Reliance Jio: Have Buy call on Bharti Airtel with target price
3:21pm: CreditSuisse: Rs 149 plan right in the mass segment for Jio.
3:19pm: CreditSuisse: Our initial impression is that this may not be the final tariff offers.
3:17pm: CreditSuisse: Incumbents will have ample time to match post Jan 1, 2017.
3:13pm: CreditSuisse: Jio’s launch has been one of our key worries for past few years.
3:11pm: CreditSuisse: We continue to stay cautious on telecom space.
3:09pm: R Chandrasekhar: It Would Be Regarded As Trial Until Co Makes A Commercial Launch
3:05pm: BofA ML on Reliance Jio: See some near-term impact on Bharti & Idea’s financials
3:03pm: BofA ML on Reliance Jio: Expect consensus downgrades on the back of Reliance Jio
3:01pm: BofA ML on Reliance Jio: 3 price point plans most disruptive – Rs 149, Rs 299 & Rs 499
2:59pm: BofA ML on Reliance Jio: Impact on higher tier segment is likely to be muted
2:57pm: BofA ML on Reliance Jio: Expect incumbents to respond with more aggressive offers
2:55pm: Fitch Ratings: Have a negative outlook for indian telecom industry
2:53pm: Fitch Ratings: Jio tariff cheaper than anticipated by almost 25-30%
2:51pm: Fitch Ratings: Believe lower tariff will hurt margins of existing telcos
2:49pm: Fitch Ratings: Expect pain for existing telcos for the next 12 months
2:47pm: Fitch Ratings: Don’t expect existing telcos to retaliate with lower prices
2:45pm: Fitch Ratings: At best expect existing telcos to match Jio’s tariffs
2:43pm: Fitch Ratings: Question is whether higher volumes will off-set lower tariffs or not
2:41pm: Fitch Ratings: Incumbent will also benefit from high data market created by Jio
2:39pm: Fitch Ratings: Jio’s bundled offerings very compelling
2:37pm: Fitch Ratings: Ratings headroom has been narrowed for Bharti
2:33pm: Abhay Aima to BTVI: Telecom industry going through disruption created by digital world
2:31pm: Abhay Aima to BTVI: In today’s digital world entry barrier is very low
2:29pm: Abhay Aima to BTVI: See margins coming down for all telcos
2:27pm: Abhay Aima to BTVI: Important for telcos to come up with new paid offerings
2:25pm: Abhay Aima to BTVI: Things will change faster than most anticipated
2:23pm: Abhay Aima to BTVI: Brands get diminished in no-time in a digital world
2:21pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: Telecom sector will see uncertainty for the next 2-3 years
2:20pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: In the long run only few players will be profitable
2:18pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: Short-term impact of Jio will be huge; believe only 3-4 players will be left in the long-run
2:14pm: Bharti Airtel: Also welcome Jio’s call to leading operators to work together
2:12pm: Airtel to Reliance Jio: Will fulfull all regulatory obligations
2:10pm: Bharti Airtel: Will continue to innovate, deliver best-in-class products and services
2:06pm: Punit Goenka, MD & CEO Zee Entertainment: Mr. Mukesh Ambani’s datagiri opens up a new chapter for the telecom industry and for the consumers!
2:04pm: Punit Goenka, MD & CEO Zee Entertainment: The data plans launched, which are cheapest across the world are indeed a boon for content creators and consumers!
2:02pm: Reliance Jio will transform India, give every Indian huge data capacity,create 1 virtual nation,disrupt incumbents who give lousy service
2:00pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: Believe will jio lose lot of subscribers once paid-scheme starts
1:58pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: First step of Jio will be to move customers from free to paid schemes
1:56pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: Unbundling of sim card the right strategy to acquire customers
1:54pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: No mobile device maker have significant market share
1:52pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: Mobile devices market very fragmented in India
1:50pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: Believe after free trial period everything will be charged
1:48pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: Time for all telcos to re-assess their plans
1:46pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: In Jio’s case free voice comes with paid data
1:44pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: Do not believe anything is free in any scheme
1:42pm: Sanjay Kapoor to BTVI: We all knew that something exceptionally disuptive will happen
1:36pm: Devdutt Pattanaik: Mukesh Ambani’s vision of Jio at the Reliance AGM reveals great possibilities for India. Exciting times ahead.
1:32pm: KPMG to BTVI: High speed 4G roll-out important for paymnent banks, financial technology companies
1:30pm: KPMG to BTVI: RS 4999 plan an aim to acquire high-end customers
1:28pm: Suhel Seth – As always, Mukesh Ambani has exhibited long-term vision with huge scale. This is going to shake things up!
1:26pm: Suhel Seth – For me as a marketing person, the wisest are the disrupters. And Mukesh AMBANI has shaken up the category.
1:24: Mohandas Pai to BTVI: Jio hitting at incumbent’s high earnings segment by Rs 4999 plan
1:22pm: Mohandas Pai to BTVI: Will see unbelievable competition in days to come
1:20pm: Anand Mahindra: 650 mn mobile broadband users by 2020 needs a revolution
1:19pm: Anand Mahindra: Will have to change the way we connect & communicate with consumers
1:18pm: Reliance Jio data tariff plans introduced by Mukesh Ambani
1:17pm: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw: India will have the largest telephony at the lowest data rate
1:16pm: Rajan Mathews to ET Now: Free voice plan must be structured well
1:15pm: Sanjay Kapoor to ET Now: Possibility of free period plan getting extended by 3 months
1:14pm: Mahesh Uppal to BTVI: See subdued interest in upcoming spectrum auctions
1:13pm: Mahesh Uppal to BTVI: Revenue a bigger worry for telcos than new spectrum
1:09pm: Hemant Joshi: No doubt Jio launch will change the industry paradigm
1:08pm: COAI: Whole paradigm has changed, simplicity has been introduced
1:07pm: COAI: Incumbents on average get about Rs 2,500-3,000 cr for interconnect
1:06pm: COAI: TRAI needs to decide if voice comes with embedded applications
1:05pm: Hemant Joshi: Won’t be surprise to see another innovative change by existing telco
1:04pm: Hemant Joshi: Customer retention will be a challenge in low price regime
1:03pm: Ajay Srivastava: Key for Jio will be to sustain market share in long-run with low tariffs
1:02pm: Ajay Srivastava: With huge investments by RIL, its balance-sheet stretched
1:01pm: Mohandas Pai: Jio will usher in a total transformation of telecom industry
1:00pm: Mohandas Pai: Few serious & deep-pocketed players will be left post data war
12:59pm: Mohandas Pai: Rs 1 lakh cr of revenues in telecom sector under threat due to Jio
12:58pm: Mohandas Pai: See significant dent in incumbents revenues & market share
12:57pm: COAI: Not sure if adequate interconnect is being provided at this point
12:56pm: COAI: Incumbents On average get about Rs 2,500-3,000 cr for interconnect
12:55pm: Bharti Airtel lost RS 11,000 cr, Idea lost Rs 3353 cr in market cap
12:54pm: COAI: Reliance Jio is being launched with very aggressive price points
12:53pm: COAI: Jio will come under regulatory regime if Sep 5 marked as commercial launch
12:52pm: COAI: Never before has a test run taken on this magnitude
12:51pm: COAI: Whole paradigm has changed, simplicity has been introduced
12:50pm: COAI: Jio will come under regulatory regime if Sep 5 marked as commercial launch
12:50pm: Mohandas Pai: Reliance Jio will change the course of the game
12:49pm: Mohandas Pai: Incumbments were charging high rates for voice, data
12:48pm: Hemant Joshi: Jio launch will create more disruption
12:47pm: TV Mohandas Pai: Jio will ensure mobile data becomes affordable for the poor
12:46pm: Hemant Joshi: Clear shift to 4G LTE in industry, move will only accelerate
12:42pm: Ajay Srivastava: Today’s announcement on Jio tariffs on expected lines
12:40pm: Ajay Srivastava: Don’t think voice will be entirely free with Jio
12:38pm: Ajay Srivastava: Jio sale will be on basis of bundled services with data
12:36pm: Mahesh Uppal: Reliance Jio tariff announcement today an aggressive & ambitious one
12:34pm: Mahesh Uppal: Jio has launched a two-pronged attack on data & voice revenue
12:32pm: Mukesh Ambani – Coal bed methane production to start in a few months, evaluating development plan for 4-5 tcf gas resources
12:30pm: Mukesh Ambani – Aggressively investing in media biz and partnering with big players globally
12:28pm: Mukesh Ambani – Making large investment to make sure refinery complex has lowest cost
12:26pm: Mukesh Ambani – Paraxylene plant mechanically complete, output in few weeks
12:24pm: Mukesh Ambani – Paraxylene plant mechanically complete, output in few weeks
12:22pm: Mukesh Ambani – Making large investment to make sure refinery complex has lowest cost
12:20pm: Mukesh Ambani – Petroleum retail biz part of overall retail business
12:18pm: Mukesh Ambani – Petrochem biz margins among Top 5 globally
12:17pm: Mukesh Ambani – Strong credit profile helps us access local & global debt markets
12:15pm: Mukesh Ambani – Building world’s largest integrated crackers in Jamnagar.
12:13pm: Mukesh Ambani – Making investments to meet nation’s demand for PET
12:12pm: Mukesh Ambani – Ethane project at Jamnagar will be ready by end of this fiscal
12:11pm: Mukesh Ambani – Our synthetic rubber plants are now operational
12:10pm: Mukesh Ambani – Have invested over Rs 1,10,000 cr on petrochemical business
12:08pm: Mukesh Ambani – Healthy competition is lifeblood of economy
12:06pm: Mukesh Ambani – 50 million call failures last week alone due to interconnection issues
12:05pm: Mukesh Ambani – Akash and Isha, both 24, our directors at Jio, have been hands on leaders. They represent large contingent of less than 30-year-olds at Jio
12:04pm: Mukesh Ambani – Appeal to telcos to provide interconnection to Jio network
12:03pm: Mukesh Ambani – Incumbents must not misuse market power to create unfair hurdles
12:02pm: Mukesh Ambani – Incumbent operators have significant advantage over new entrants
12:01pm: Mukesh Ambani – Jio-enabled Indians will create whole new digital economy
12:00pm: Mukesh Ambani – India will change forever from September 5
11:59am: Mukesh Ambani – Reliance Jio fibre-to-home to offer data at 1 Gbps
11:58am: Mukesh Ambani – To invest Rs 5000 cr over 5 years as venture capital
11:57am: Mukesh Ambani – Average age at Jio is 30 years
11:56am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio has 60,000 employees across India
11:54am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio targets 250 crore Gb data per month
11:53am: Mukesh Ambani – Reliance Jio to be launched on September 5; commercial launch on December 31
11:52am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio plans apps around education, rural, health & agriculture
11:50am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio to partner with leading internet players to provide services
11:49am: Mukesh Ambani – Platinum customers will get best international roaming rates, best services
11:47am: Mukesh Ambani – Rs 149 monthly plan will offer 0.3 GB 4G data free
11:46am: Mukesh Ambani – Rs 4,999 monthly plan will give 75 GB free 4G data
11:45am: Telecom stocks like Bharti Airtel, Idea fall upto 8% on Reliance Jio’s free voice call announcement
11:44am: Mukesh Ambani – Every Indian can do datagiri
11:43am: Mukesh Ambani – No more blackout days; no surge pricing on busy days
11:42am: Mukesh Ambani – Special offer for students, will get 25% more data
11:41am: Mukesh Ambani – Reliance Jio maximum monthly Rs 4,999 plan for heavy data users
11:40am: Mukesh Ambani – To rollout WiFi hotspots across India
11:38am: Mukesh Ambani – Reliance Jio to charge Rs 50/Gigabyte for data
11:37am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio’s base rate for data to be 1/10 of current market price
11:36am: Mukesh Ambani – Reliance Jio roaming charges will be zero within India
11:35am: Mukesh Ambani – All voice calls for Reliance Jio absolutely free
11:34am: Mukesh Ambani – Customers should pay for either data or voice, not both
11:33am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio cinema to have a library of 6,000 movies
11:32am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio services will be offered free till December 2017
11:31am: Rel Digital Launches router at Rs 1,999 for 2G, 3G phones
11:30am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio is the largest only 4G LTE network in the world
11:28am: Mukesh Ambani – To introduce jio phones in Rs 2999 – Rs 5999 range from today
11:27am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio apps bouquet will be available complimentary upto December 31, 2017
11:26am: Mukesh Ambani – Have capacity to acquire 1 million users a day, Jio supports virtual, augmented reality
11:25am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio has created an all-IP network, most old telecom providers have built network for voice
11:24am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio’s network covers 18,000 cities & 2 lakh villages
11:23am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio will cover 90% of India’s population by March 2017
11:21am: Mukesh Ambani – Network is the first pillar of Jio
11:20am: Mukesh Ambani – Data should never be unaffordable for anyone, data is the oxygen of digital life
11:19am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio is an ‘entire ecosystem’
11:18am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio will move India from ‘data shortage to ‘data abundance’
11:17am: Mukesh Ambani – World is at the beginning of a digital revolution
11:16am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio is the biggest investment in the history of RIL
11:15am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio means to live; nothing more precious than life
11:14am: Mukesh Ambani – Jio is our commitment to enrich every Indian’s life
11:13am: Mukesh Ambani – India is ranked 155 on mobile internet accessibility
11:12am: Without digital over time we will become irrelevant, says Mukesh Ambani
11:11am: World is on the verge of data revolution, says Ambani
11:10am: Mukesh Ambani – We are at the beginning of a new era
11:05am: RIL’s 42nd AGM starts
10:53am: 60-70% of market still voice dependent says Rajan Mathews
10:52am: Sanjay Kapoor – Never seen any new entrant topple the incumbents
10:50am: Mukesh & Nita Ambani arrive for RIL’s 42nd AGM
10:45am: Watch live streaming of RIL’s 42nd AGM
10:42am: As Reliance Jio’s commercial launch nears, telecom operators like Airtel, Vodafone and Idea have also slashed tariffs and bundled free calls with data to woo customers and drive mass market adoption
10:40am: The AGM comes at a time when the new entrant is locked in a dispute with the existing cellular operators on the points of interconnect.
10:39am: Sources say that Ambani is likely to provide a status update on the Rs 2 lakh-crore spending on building telecom network as well as growing subscriber numbers, which at the last count stood at 1.5 million test users.
10:38am: Reliance Jio has accused incumbent players of not releasing sufficient interconnection ports during its test run of services while the existing operators (under the aegis of COAI) have dubbed its testing of network as an effort to bypass regulations.
10:35am: At the previous AGM in June 2015, Ambani had stated that 2016-17 would be the first full year of operation of the company’s telecom arm, Reliance Jio Infocomm.
10:30am: Reliance Jio has been expanding its free 90-day unlimited calls and high-speed mobile broadband trial offer to 4G smartphone users of brands such as HTC, Intex, Vivo, Gionee, Karbonn and Lava.
10:25am: Jio service is already available on Sony, Sansui, Videocon, LG, Samsung, Micromax, Panasonic, Asus, TCL, Alcatel 4G smartphones, and the industry estimates that its reach may now extend to about potentially 75-80 per cent 4G phone users.
10:20 am: Under the offer, the owner of a 4G-compliant handset from any of these brands can carry it to Reliance Digital stores, including Digital Xpress and Digital Xpress Mini, and other retail stores for a free Reliance Jio SIM.