US bank Citi said on Friday it still expected Britons to vote to stay in the European Union in next week’s referendum, despite increased momentum for the “Leave” campaign.
Citi said a simple average of the past 10 opinion polls showed a 2.7 percentage point lead for “Leave”.
This fell to 0.2 percentage points after Citi adjusted the figures to even out the number of telephone and online polls, and reduce the effect of different polling companies’ methodologies.
“Flirtation with political alternatives is often followed by ‘snapback’ to the status quo. We expect this bias for the status quo to help tilt the outcome in favour of ‘Remain,'” Citi said.
“Recent events in the UK have led to suspension of campaigning, and some increased uncertainty. Overall, we continue to put the risk of Brexit at the top of the 30-40 percent range.”