The second half of the monsoon season is expected to receive “normal” rainfall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today. According to the IMD, rainfall over the country during the remaining two months of the monsoon season (August and September) is likely to be 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent. Rainfall between 94-104 per cent of the LPA is considered “normal”, it said. August is expected to witness 99 per cent of the LPA, the weatherman said.
The IMD has predicted a normal monsoon this year. The MET, however, recorded an overall deficiency of minus 3 per cent from June 1 to August 7 following which several parts of the country are witnessing drought-like conditions, especially in the southern peninsula. On the other hand, states like Gujarat, Rajasthan and several parts of the northeast have witnessed floods.
In June, IMD Director General K J Ramesh had revised the forecast to 98 per cent precipitation of the LPA due to reduced chances of occurrence of El-Nino, a phenomenon associated with heating of Pacific waters. “The atmospheric conditions over the Pacific Ocean continue to reflect neutral El-Nino conditions. The latest forecast also indicates neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions till 2018 spring season,” the IMD said.
The weather body added that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also neutral which is a “good sign for the remaining two months”. The Indian Ocean Dipole is a phenomenon associated with heating of Indian Ocean.