After landing in Indian shores around May 31, the south-west monsoon is likely to make rapid progress in western parts of the country, an Indian Express report said. It is expected to cover Kerala and coastal Karnataka to reach Goa and parts of Konkan almost a week before earlier predicted date of June 15. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials in Pune have said that the weather models suggest monsoon will rapidly progress after June 4.
According to the report, this is also the time, when the prevailing anti-cyclone, lying over the Arabian Sea currently, is likely to disappear and make way for the monsoon to move towards the north.
“We are closely monitoring this anti-cyclone. Once it weakens, monsoon winds will not have any hurdle in advancing further,” A K Srivastava, head of the climate monitoring and analysis group, was quoted as saying by the paper. In 2015, the monsoon made slow march towards Karnataka and Maharashtra, even though onset over Kerala was on time.
Weather experts believe that this year, the monsoon will be favoured positively due to the presence of Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO) in the Indian Ocean. “The presence of MJO in its current position will not only help the onset of monsoon, but also aid its advance to other parts of the country,”D S Pai, head of the IMD’s long-range forecast, was quoted as saying by Indian Express.
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The MJO is a periodical oscillation with a cycle of 30-60 days. It has a has huge influence on the monsoon in the country. It travels from west to east along the Pacific and Indian oceans during its cycle. Previous records suggest that MJO has a positive effect on the southwest monsoon, while passing through the Indian Ocean, especially as monsoon sets in.
Monsoon is at present in the Bay of Bengal. It is likely to move further in the next 24-48 hours, the Indian Express report added.